Signpost

A poster of Qasem Soleimani has been placed next to the Israel - Lebanon frontier at the so-called Shebaa Farms disputed area. The message reads "With your blood, we will cross it."

Note: it's been snowing in this part of Lebanon. Donald Trump has been known to use snow in the Middle East as evidence against climate change.

Photo via Lebanon National News Agency. 

Reunited

The photograph shows Qasem Soleimani delivering a speech at the 10th anniversary commemoration of the mysterious 2008 death of Hezbollah senior official Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus (that's Mughniyeh's image on the podium). There are certain similarities in the eventual demise of both men, and Soleimani's speech certainly had some hints that he knew he might eventually go the same way. He concluded --

"The enemy knows, but must be serious about the retribution of Imad Mughniyah not to shoot missiles and kill one, the retribution of these bloods is the destruction of the Zionist regime and the enemy knows that this is a divine promise that will surely come true."

Whether these were his final instructions to the Iranian government remains to be seen.

Photos via FARS. 

Other than that, they're OK with it

Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi statement --

The two martyrs were great symbols in achieving victory against the terrorist ISIS. The assassination of an Iraqi military commander holding an official position is an aggression against Iraq, the state, the government, and the people. Carrying out liquidation operations against Iraqi leadership figures or from a brotherly country on Iraqi soil is a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty, a blatant attack on the dignity of the country and a dangerous escalation that ignites a devastating war in Iraq, the region and the world.

Now we know why Mike Pompeo postponed his Ukraine trip

That guy has tweeted that we see Iran responsible for the events in Baghdad & we will respond to Iran.
1st: You can’t do anything.
2nd: If you were logical —which you’re not— you’d see that your crimes in Iraq, Afghanistan… have made nations hate you. https://t.co/hMGOEDwHuY

— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) January 1, 2020

History Lesson

This is the Turkish Airlines plane "Kushimoto." As the associated Turkish Airlines webpage explains, the plane is an A330 with a replica livery of a 1980s DC-10 that was used to rescue Japanese travelers stranded in Tehran during an air blockade in the Iran-Iraq war. For Turkey, that rescue was seen as returning a century-old favour, when Japanese villagers had rescued Turkish sailors whose ship was destroyed in a typhoon.

The point: Turkey takes its relations with Japan seriously. They won't be impressed at being used as a pit-stop in the Carlos Ghosn escape. 

Bad traveler

Two days ago, the US State Department was emphasizing the importance of Mike Pompeo's imminent visit to eastern Europe, including Ukraine, and Central Asia. Today, in the doldrums of New Year's Day, the visit was postponed with no new date, on the following grounds --

due to the need for the Secretary to be in Washington, D.C., to continue monitoring the ongoing situation in Iraq and ensure the safety and security of Americans in the Middle East.

This makes no sense. If nothing else, by traveling he would have been in a similar time zone to Iraq and actually better placed to monitor things.

Instead he appears to have found a convenient way out of a very awkward meeting with the Ukrainian President Zelensky, while parrying his fear that, however remote the possibility, he would be out of the office if something happened to a US diplomat abroad -- thus revealing his insecurity that his Benghazi antics against Hillary Clinton could be used against him. It's almost like he has his eye on a political campaign!

Quote of the Day

Dan Azzi on Carlos Ghosn --

For a second, he wonders to himself, is it better to be imprisoned in Japan with free cash or free in Lebanon with imprisoned cash?

Origins

Don Imus is dead. Here's his New York Times obituary. For all the "Trump country" trips that journalists do to diners in Ohio, it would be a better use of their time to study Don Imus. He wasn't from New York City, but he became integral to its political culture through his decades on radio. And whether from being lucky or good, his show was the morning anchor program on WFAN, otherwise an all-sports station, at the very beginning of the all-sports all-the-time format that now accounts for a sizable chunk of your television content. New York is of course a "liberal" city, but lots of conservatives live in the city, or its suburbs, and a visceral political culture was emerging from the mid-1980s. The timelines for Fox News and its major personalities like Bill O'Reilly and Sean Hannity begin there. Rudy Giuliani thrived in it. And of course, the New Yorker who's now President, Donald Trump. Without Imus, it's more difficult to imagine a President Trump. 

Outrage of the Day

 They're dressed as priests and altar boys! They're mocking religion! They're saying we should worship rock and roll like Jesus! Head to Twitter immediately and denounce them!

PS: It was released in 1977.

Quote of the Day

Simon Kuper in the Financial Times --

Covering politics today often feels like covering football. There’s the same stupidity of much of the discussion, the blaming of referees and the empty slogans (“Get Brexit done”). There’s also the same abuse: many people now build their identity on blind political partisanship, whether it’s for Trump, Corbyn, Leave or Remain. Cornel Sandvoss, sociologist at Huddersfield University, calls this political fandom.

They still don't get it

House of Commons 2nd reading of the EU Withdrawal Bill -

Jim Shannon (DUP -- Strangford) 

It is clear that a number of issues will make Northern Ireland a less Unionist region of the United Kingdom. Fishermen who bring fish back to Portavogie will be subject to a tariff, and the meat sector will also face tariffs. Does my right hon. Friend agree that Northern Ireland will end up being less Unionist than Liverpool, Leicester, Manchester, Newcastle and London, and that we should be the same as, not different from, everywhere else in the United Kingdom? 

From the same debate, the maiden speech of Claire Hanna -- from the nationalist party that actually shows up in Parliament -- is here. 

Geoffrey Cox was right

House of Commons 25 September 2019

This Parliament should have the courage to face the electorate, but it won't, because so many of them are really all about preventing us from leaving the European Union at all. But the time is coming, Mr Speaker, when even these turkeys won't be able to prevent Christmas.

http://bit.ly/2n9rbO6 

There is always a line from The Godfather

The UK election result calls to mind Clemenza's reference to "pain in the ass innocent bystanders." 

That guy in Riyadh

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's tweet of concern about the Pensacola shooting refers to a phone call that he had with Saudi Arabia "Foreign Minister al-Saud." This is nonsensical. The foreign minister is a prince and like many in government, shares a descent from the founding al-Saud family -- hence the name of the country! 

Could he not even be bothered to use one of the minister's more specific names, like Faisal bin Farhan? Perhaps his mind was too preoccupied with the aborted but no less bizarre stunt where he was going to bring Bibi with him to Morocco? 

Quote of the Day

From superbly illustrated interview with Edna O'Brien in the Financial Times --

Her stories are studded with sparkling encounters. “I asked Beckett that once,” she says, when she thought I’d asked her about God. “He said: ‘Hang on, hang on, the bastard doesn’t exist . . . ’ ”

That man again

One thing that London Bridge attacker Usman Khan and Pensacola mass-shooter Mohammed Al-Shamrani had in common was an affinity for the writings of Yemeni-American Anwar al-Awlaki [the alleged social media posts by al-Shamrani include a quote from al-Awlaki].

This shows -- again -- that whatever about the various brands of ISIL, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains a potent and long-lived driver of radicalization.

And again points to the serious flaws in the US strategy against al-Awlaki, from embarrassing disclosures about his personal life to assassination of him and family members. An alternative world where al-Awlaki had been persuaded against violence, or not elevated to mythical status by his assassination? We just don't know. 

Here, there, and everywhere

During the US Vice Presidential "surprise" visit to Iraq, Mike Pence gave a short address to US military personnel at Erbil Air Base in the Kurdish Region of Iraq. During the address, he mentions that he's at Erbil Air Base 10 times. It's a sure sign of a rushed and cobbled-together visit -- was it meant to be Trump? -- that the speech has to be peppered with references to where it is taking place. 

Lawyer, Mayor, Salesman, Spy

It's been clear for a while that Donald Trump's circle of confused old men, himself included, is an easy target for a Russian intelligence operation. Sure there will be a lot of inconsistencies in their research on their theory that Ukraine framed Russia, since it's a ludicrous theory, but then again a good spy will know how to keep the information flow tempting, as George explained to the Minister in Tinker, Tailor --

MINISTER (Appalled) Witchcraft's intelligence is genuine! It's been gold! 
SMILEY Just enough glitter, amongst the chicken-feed.

All Souls Brexit

Lionel Barber in the FT with a brilliant reflection on Brexit; one highlight --

Several Eurocrats interviewed for this article agreed that the Brussels summit in December 2011 marked a turning point for British diplomacy. France and Germany were battling to secure agreement on a “fiscal compact” to buttress the eurozone after the global financial crisis. In the early hours of the morning, Cameron, without forewarning, produced demands to protect the City of London and threatened a veto if he was rebuffed. European leaders, including Merkel, were outraged. They saw this as a domestic gambit to appease Eurosceptics on a matter of singular importance to eurozone members. So they simply ignored Cameron and secured an agreement among themselves, outside the EU treaties. The UK’s bluff had been called.

One implication of this is that the 2012 Irish referendum to ratify the fiscal compact -- needed precisely because it was outside the EU treaties -- was a bigger deal than perhaps realized at the time. If that referendum had failed, Cameron would have been rescued from his isolationist stance on the compact and the momentum towards his own doomed Brexit referendum would have slowed. 

Old guys in diners, Damascus edition

Bashar al-Assad --

As for Trump, you might ask me a question and I give you an answer that might sound strange. I say that he is the best American President, not because his policies are good, but because he is the most transparent president.

Halloween Brexit

David Cameron, who started the whole mess, in Riyadh meeting King Salman on the day that Britain was supposed to leave the EU.

Photo: Saudi Press Agency. 

No quid pro quo, right?

Denmark is a very special country with incredible people, but based on Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s comments, that she would have no interest in discussing the purchase of Greenland, I will be postponing our meeting scheduled in two weeks for another time....

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 20, 2019

Word Choice

Donald Trump, announcing the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,  carefully thanked the nations of Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Russia. Not the governments.  

Not caught sitting down

Jordan's King Abdullah (with his son Hussein), perhaps having learned well from Donald Trump's experience 3 days beforehand, not to look like Nancy Pelosi is standing up to him.

Photo: Petra (Jordan News Agency)

Brexit quote of the day

Terminator 3 --

John Connor : No, you shouldn't exist. We took out Cyberdyne over ten years ago. We stopped Judgment Day. 
Terminator : You only postponed it. Judgment Day is inevitable.

The Donald Trump travel guide

His description of the car and motorcycle collision that has become a diplomatic incident:

I believe it was going down the wrong way, because that happens in Europe.  You go to Europe and the roads are opposite.  And it's very tough.

Perfidious Albion

One minor question amid the much bigger Brexit questions -- is the transparently obvious Tory strategy to blame Ireland and Germany for a disorderly Brexit named Project Devil Eire or Project Asgard? 

The Unionist veto

Financial Times --

Steve Baker, head of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, said he would support the new deal if the DUP followed suit. “On the union it's clear to me we don't have a right to trump the DUP,” he said.

All of Brexit and all of United Kingdom politics has been defined down to the position of one small  regional political party on one probably unworkable proposal. 

There is always a tweet

"Pleasure in the job puts perfection in the work." - Aristotle

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 2, 2013

The selfie of doom

لا تعليق pic.twitter.com/KbXMcJlw8K

— Saad Hariri (@saadhariri) April 9, 2018

That's Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's famous selfie with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince MBS and Moroccan King Mohamed VI ("M6"), in Paris in April 2018. It hasn't been a good couple of days for the trio.

M6 was supposed to go to Paris for Jacques Chirac's funeral but couldn't due to a heavy lung infection.

Saad Hariri saw the world find out via the New York Times and the intrepid South African tax system about his bizarre US$16 million payment to a Cape Town bikini model.

And MBS had to navigate a lot of barbed remembrances of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.