One of today's press briefings by the US contingent in Latvia was declared off-the-record, leading to interactions like this, as the row of suits at the head table couldn't be named --
Q Can I get back to something the senior official on the left said?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Your left, or our left? .... I'll help you -- even though I'm on your right and our left ... Many of the joint collaborations that I and my fellow senior administration official have referred to have taken place subsequent to the writing of this memo.
[Full text of leaked memo that generated this panicked briefing]
UPDATE: They managed to top the farce at yet another briefing in Amman to explain the cancelled meeting with Iraqi PM al-Maliki --
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: No, the one word answer is, no. I can tell you that when the President made the decision -- or actually, it wasn't even a decision a few days ago when the idea arose -- of coming here after Riga, it was always a bilateral dinner. I can tell you that. It was always a bilateral dinner, and that was well understood.
I don't know when the idea -- the trilateral idea came up, but it was pretty clear from the dinner, I think, that both of them felt they -- you know, there are three bilateral meetings here, which cover all the bases -- President-King, King-Maliki, President-Maliki. So everybody gets to have these bilateral conversations and go into all the depth they want, and I guess they just concluded there was no need for a trilat.
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
It's the "I didn't do it" guy
Tom Friedman in the New York Times (subs. req'd) --
On Feb. 12, 2003, before the war, I wrote a column offering what I called my ''pottery store'' rule for Iraq: ''You break it, you own it.'' It was not an argument against the war, but rather a cautionary note about the need to do it with allies, because transforming Iraq would be such a huge undertaking. (Colin Powell later picked up on this and used the phrase to try to get President Bush to act with more caution, but Mr. Bush did not heed Mr. Powell's advice.)
But my Pottery Barn rule was wrong, because Iraq was already pretty broken before we got there -- broken, it seems, by 1,000 years of Arab-Muslim authoritarianism, three brutal decades of Sunni Baathist rule, and a crippling decade of U.N. sanctions. It was held together only by Saddam's iron fist.
His "Pottery Barn" rule was also wrong (and by the way, note his legerdemain between "pottery store" and "Pottery Barn") because it's not the Pottery Barn rule.
On Feb. 12, 2003, before the war, I wrote a column offering what I called my ''pottery store'' rule for Iraq: ''You break it, you own it.'' It was not an argument against the war, but rather a cautionary note about the need to do it with allies, because transforming Iraq would be such a huge undertaking. (Colin Powell later picked up on this and used the phrase to try to get President Bush to act with more caution, but Mr. Bush did not heed Mr. Powell's advice.)
But my Pottery Barn rule was wrong, because Iraq was already pretty broken before we got there -- broken, it seems, by 1,000 years of Arab-Muslim authoritarianism, three brutal decades of Sunni Baathist rule, and a crippling decade of U.N. sanctions. It was held together only by Saddam's iron fist.
His "Pottery Barn" rule was also wrong (and by the way, note his legerdemain between "pottery store" and "Pottery Barn") because it's not the Pottery Barn rule.
Irish breakfast might kill, but not that quickly
A bizarre coincidence, a truly dodgy piece of black pudding, or something more? --
LONDON (Reuters) - Yegor Gaidar, a former Russian prime minister, told the Financial Times he suffered a sudden, serious illness last week on a visit to Ireland.
The mystery ailment struck a day after former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko died in a London hospital from radiation poisoning. There was no indication that radiation had been the cause of Gaidar's sickness, the newspaper said on Wednesday.
"I have suffered sudden problems with my health on November 24 which posed a threat to my life," the former premier told the newspaper in a telephone interview from a hospital in Moscow where he is undergoing tests.
"This threat has not been realized. After a few hours the situation stabilized," Gaidar said.
He was unable to explain why he fell ill, noting that it occurred after he ate a simple breakfast where he had been staying near Dublin [Maynooth], the newspaper reported.
UPDATE 1 DECEMBER: Whatever about the Irish breakfast, his case is a commentary on the state of the Irish healthcare system. He was discharged from Connolly in just 3 hours, yet subsequent developments show that he must have been seriously ill at that point.
And RTE reports that radiation tests are now being conducted on the Maynooth campus and at Connolly.
LONDON (Reuters) - Yegor Gaidar, a former Russian prime minister, told the Financial Times he suffered a sudden, serious illness last week on a visit to Ireland.
The mystery ailment struck a day after former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko died in a London hospital from radiation poisoning. There was no indication that radiation had been the cause of Gaidar's sickness, the newspaper said on Wednesday.
"I have suffered sudden problems with my health on November 24 which posed a threat to my life," the former premier told the newspaper in a telephone interview from a hospital in Moscow where he is undergoing tests.
"This threat has not been realized. After a few hours the situation stabilized," Gaidar said.
He was unable to explain why he fell ill, noting that it occurred after he ate a simple breakfast where he had been staying near Dublin [Maynooth], the newspaper reported.
UPDATE 1 DECEMBER: Whatever about the Irish breakfast, his case is a commentary on the state of the Irish healthcare system. He was discharged from Connolly in just 3 hours, yet subsequent developments show that he must have been seriously ill at that point.
And RTE reports that radiation tests are now being conducted on the Maynooth campus and at Connolly.
Also available with suicide bomber wording
Irish Times (subs. req'd) -- A T-shirt saying "I'm a bomb technician - if you see me running try to keep up" was found in the house of a man accused of IRA membership, the Special Criminal Court heard yesterday.
Det Sgt Ruairí Corcoran showed the T- shirt to the three-judge court on the first day of the trial of Art Sherwin (55), a father of 10, Ballinagappa Road, Clane, Co Kildare. He denies membership of the IRA on March 14th, 2005.
Det Sgt Corcoran said he found the T- shirt among various other republican paraphernalia and 10 alarm clocks when he searched the house as part of a Garda investigation.
Det Sgt Ruairí Corcoran showed the T- shirt to the three-judge court on the first day of the trial of Art Sherwin (55), a father of 10, Ballinagappa Road, Clane, Co Kildare. He denies membership of the IRA on March 14th, 2005.
Det Sgt Corcoran said he found the T- shirt among various other republican paraphernalia and 10 alarm clocks when he searched the house as part of a Garda investigation.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
2 sides in the Great Game
Today at National Review's The Corner --
[Mario Loyola] ...I've often thought that U.S. foreign policy after the Cold War has been consumed with cleaning up the disastrous mess the Soviet Union left behind.
What do Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Sudan, and Israel-Palestine have in common?
[Mario Loyola] ...I've often thought that U.S. foreign policy after the Cold War has been consumed with cleaning up the disastrous mess the Soviet Union left behind.
What do Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Sudan, and Israel-Palestine have in common?
Bush's briefing book for Estonia
Any guesses as to what the 2nd and 3rd of the three bullet points were in the sheet provided to him by his handlers before the visit (the first being coalition of the willing)?
PRESIDENT BUSH: It's an amazing country you have here. They've got an e-government system that should be the envy of a lot of nations. They've got a tax system that is transparent, open and simple; people file their taxes over the Internet.
PRESIDENT BUSH: Mr. President, thank you very much, and, Mr. Prime Minister, thank you, as well, for your gracious hospitality ... I am amazed to be in a country that has been able to effect a flat tax in such a positive way. I am impressed by the e-governance that you have here in Estonia.
PRESIDENT BUSH: .. We also discussed how Estonia has built a strong economy and raised the standard of living for the people. I appreciate the fact that you got a flat tax, you got a tax system that's transparent and simple. I also am amazed by the e-governance you have here in your country.
UPDATE: The WSJ also notices the emphasis; also see here for a debunking of the flat tax myths.
PRESIDENT BUSH: It's an amazing country you have here. They've got an e-government system that should be the envy of a lot of nations. They've got a tax system that is transparent, open and simple; people file their taxes over the Internet.
PRESIDENT BUSH: Mr. President, thank you very much, and, Mr. Prime Minister, thank you, as well, for your gracious hospitality ... I am amazed to be in a country that has been able to effect a flat tax in such a positive way. I am impressed by the e-governance that you have here in Estonia.
PRESIDENT BUSH: .. We also discussed how Estonia has built a strong economy and raised the standard of living for the people. I appreciate the fact that you got a flat tax, you got a tax system that's transparent and simple. I also am amazed by the e-governance you have here in your country.
UPDATE: The WSJ also notices the emphasis; also see here for a debunking of the flat tax myths.
Europe is other people
The early returns are in on the state of American conservative thought in the post election defeat era. And they're not good, even by their debased standards. Here's a Tuesday editorial from the Wall Street Journal (subs. req'd), linked to the NATO summit in Latvia:
The NATO forces battling resurgent Taliban in southern Afghanistan call to mind the Normandy landing. Once again, mostly Canadian, British and American troops are fighting and dying. Most of the rest of Europe is absent from the fight,
So it was Japanese soldiers on the other side in France in 1944?
most NATO members prefer the by now traditional division of labor: The Anglo-Saxons do the fighting while the others compete for popularity as armed aid workers ...The 2,900 German troops in Afghanistan are concentrated in the relatively safe north, focusing on reconstruction ... . If the Taliban are allowed to re-establish Afghanistan as global jihad's international headquarters, Europe would probably suffer more than the U.S. or Canada. The terrorists are opportunistic killers, attacking where there is the least resistance. Since September 11, they have failed to carry out another attack on U.S. soil. Scores have died in bomb attacks in Europe.
Note the incoherence. The under-equipped Germans are supposedly hiding out in northern Afghanistan where there is least resistance -- precisely the place where those opportunistic terrorists are said to be most likely to attack. And it doesn't occur to the Journal that it might indeed be because Europe has to concentrate on the home front that it's been harder to mobilize for the Afghan War, not least given the moral hazard that more European forces there would just free up US troops for adventures elsewhere.
Finally, the editorial never confronts one contradiction at the heart of the NATO strategy -- that there is at least one European country that's "plenty willing" (as Bush says) for a fight, especially when it gets really messy. That country is also missing from the WSJ's list of countries above that did the fighting in WW2, and it's the one which the choice of location for today's summit was designed to irritate. Indeed, there are echoes of past and present dilemmas in one of today's anniversaries --
in 1943 Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin met in Tehran to discuss their combined strategy for defeating the Germans.
That was back when it was understood that wars involved awkward choices.
The NATO forces battling resurgent Taliban in southern Afghanistan call to mind the Normandy landing. Once again, mostly Canadian, British and American troops are fighting and dying. Most of the rest of Europe is absent from the fight,
So it was Japanese soldiers on the other side in France in 1944?
most NATO members prefer the by now traditional division of labor: The Anglo-Saxons do the fighting while the others compete for popularity as armed aid workers ...The 2,900 German troops in Afghanistan are concentrated in the relatively safe north, focusing on reconstruction ... . If the Taliban are allowed to re-establish Afghanistan as global jihad's international headquarters, Europe would probably suffer more than the U.S. or Canada. The terrorists are opportunistic killers, attacking where there is the least resistance. Since September 11, they have failed to carry out another attack on U.S. soil. Scores have died in bomb attacks in Europe.
Note the incoherence. The under-equipped Germans are supposedly hiding out in northern Afghanistan where there is least resistance -- precisely the place where those opportunistic terrorists are said to be most likely to attack. And it doesn't occur to the Journal that it might indeed be because Europe has to concentrate on the home front that it's been harder to mobilize for the Afghan War, not least given the moral hazard that more European forces there would just free up US troops for adventures elsewhere.
Finally, the editorial never confronts one contradiction at the heart of the NATO strategy -- that there is at least one European country that's "plenty willing" (as Bush says) for a fight, especially when it gets really messy. That country is also missing from the WSJ's list of countries above that did the fighting in WW2, and it's the one which the choice of location for today's summit was designed to irritate. Indeed, there are echoes of past and present dilemmas in one of today's anniversaries --
in 1943 Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin met in Tehran to discuss their combined strategy for defeating the Germans.
That was back when it was understood that wars involved awkward choices.
Monday, November 27, 2006
Outside looking in, again
One likely explanation of Tony Blair's willingness to indulge George Bush in his various schemes was the belief in London that, via the State Department, they could head off the White House's worst excesses. Consistent with this is the fixation of London first with Colin Powell and now Condi Rice, notwithstanding what the historical record has revealed about Colin Powell's very low weight in the Iraq deliberations.
Having latched on to Condi, they're hopefully schooled enough in the Yes Minister tradition to understand the importance of the people around Condi, by which standard there is bad news today --
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's most senior adviser on Iraq is leaving the State Department to return to his teaching job. Philip D. Zelikow is the best-known member of Rice's academic brain trust at the State Department, and the author of sometimes contrarian appraisals of the Iraq conflict and reconstruction effort. He holds the title counselor, a sort of adviser without portfolio.
In a resignation letter dated Monday, Zelikow said he will return to teaching at the University of Virginia in January. He cited a "long-standing debt to my family" and "truly riveting obligation to college bursars," for his children's tuition.
Zelikow was among the first people Rice hired after she took over as secretary of state in 2005. She also brought in other fellow academics to join a team of Republican political strategists to be her top advisers. His first assignment was a scouting trip to Iraq.
When Zelikow returned, according to the Bob Woodward book "State of Denial," he wrote a secret memo characterizing Iraq as "a failed state" two years after the U.S.-led invasion. In September 2005, he wrote a memo estimating a 70 percent chance of success in achieving a stable, democratic Iraq, and what he called a "significant risk" of "catastrophic failure," the book said.
Besides being on of the few reality-based officials with any influence at the top, Zelikow was also the key person at the top pushing the Blair line that resolution of any problem in the Middle East was going to require progress on Israel-Palestine, a position with no constituency inside the White House. Rice is having trouble filling the senior positions at the State Department, indicating that people in Washington recognize what Blair does not -- the very limited influence that the department has over disastrous policies.
UPDATE 28 NOVEMBER: Lest there be any doubt, US National Security Adviser Steven Hadley shot down the Blair-Zelikow view for good --
Q Underlying a lot of the calls for more direct talks with Iran and Syria is the belief that if there were progress, particularly involving Israel, either with the Palestinians, or between Israel and Syria, that if there was progress on those two tracks you might have greater stability in Iraq or across the Mideast. Do you think that that position, that idea, that progress in Israel-Palestine, Israel-Syria is linked to stability in Iraq and the Mideast? Do you share that belief?
MR. HADLEY: We have -- it's in our interest and it's in the interest of the region to both help Iraqis stabilize the situation in Iraq, help Iraq become a democratic state that can, as the President says, can govern itself, defend itself and sustain itself, and is an ally in the war on terror. It is also, separately and apart, a good thing for the region and for U.S. policy for the Israelis and the Palestinians to get to the point where they can talk about how to stand down their conflict and move in the direction of a more permanent peace. Those are useful and important policy objectives.
Notice the rejection of any sequencing or linkage between the two issues.
FINAL UPDATE: One State Department analyst, Kendall Myers, thinks that Blair never had much influence.
Having latched on to Condi, they're hopefully schooled enough in the Yes Minister tradition to understand the importance of the people around Condi, by which standard there is bad news today --
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's most senior adviser on Iraq is leaving the State Department to return to his teaching job. Philip D. Zelikow is the best-known member of Rice's academic brain trust at the State Department, and the author of sometimes contrarian appraisals of the Iraq conflict and reconstruction effort. He holds the title counselor, a sort of adviser without portfolio.
In a resignation letter dated Monday, Zelikow said he will return to teaching at the University of Virginia in January. He cited a "long-standing debt to my family" and "truly riveting obligation to college bursars," for his children's tuition.
Zelikow was among the first people Rice hired after she took over as secretary of state in 2005. She also brought in other fellow academics to join a team of Republican political strategists to be her top advisers. His first assignment was a scouting trip to Iraq.
When Zelikow returned, according to the Bob Woodward book "State of Denial," he wrote a secret memo characterizing Iraq as "a failed state" two years after the U.S.-led invasion. In September 2005, he wrote a memo estimating a 70 percent chance of success in achieving a stable, democratic Iraq, and what he called a "significant risk" of "catastrophic failure," the book said.
Besides being on of the few reality-based officials with any influence at the top, Zelikow was also the key person at the top pushing the Blair line that resolution of any problem in the Middle East was going to require progress on Israel-Palestine, a position with no constituency inside the White House. Rice is having trouble filling the senior positions at the State Department, indicating that people in Washington recognize what Blair does not -- the very limited influence that the department has over disastrous policies.
UPDATE 28 NOVEMBER: Lest there be any doubt, US National Security Adviser Steven Hadley shot down the Blair-Zelikow view for good --
Q Underlying a lot of the calls for more direct talks with Iran and Syria is the belief that if there were progress, particularly involving Israel, either with the Palestinians, or between Israel and Syria, that if there was progress on those two tracks you might have greater stability in Iraq or across the Mideast. Do you think that that position, that idea, that progress in Israel-Palestine, Israel-Syria is linked to stability in Iraq and the Mideast? Do you share that belief?
MR. HADLEY: We have -- it's in our interest and it's in the interest of the region to both help Iraqis stabilize the situation in Iraq, help Iraq become a democratic state that can, as the President says, can govern itself, defend itself and sustain itself, and is an ally in the war on terror. It is also, separately and apart, a good thing for the region and for U.S. policy for the Israelis and the Palestinians to get to the point where they can talk about how to stand down their conflict and move in the direction of a more permanent peace. Those are useful and important policy objectives.
Notice the rejection of any sequencing or linkage between the two issues.
FINAL UPDATE: One State Department analyst, Kendall Myers, thinks that Blair never had much influence.
Saturday, November 25, 2006
Double minority
In an incident that is difficult to slot into any of the many narratives about French society, a black policeman shot dead a fan of Paris St Germain who was one of a mob attacking him and a French fan of Israeli soccer team Hapoel Tel Aviv whom he was protecting. This extensive BBC report notes that things got ugly after the match, which PSG lost 4-2. The mob chanted anti-Semitic slogans at a group of French fans of the Israeli team and then attacked one fan and the policeman, Antoine Granomort, who had intervened. Accounts differ about whether he fired in self-defence or in panic, although in this case it's not clear what the difference is.
PSG fans had been more recently noted for infighting, but the presence of the Israeli team clearly brought other tendencies to the surface. Yet both Hapoel and Maccabi Haifa have managed previous trips to potentially dodgy territory without this level of trouble breaking out -- the presence of hometown fans of the visiting team being the apparent "provocation" in this case. The events will inevitably be grist for the mill in this political season in France.
UPDATE: Much more, in French, from France 2 [also watch their nightly news]. The specific chant aimed at the policeman was "Dirty nigger ... Blue, White, Red, France for the French". It also appears that a single bullet injured one fan before hitting the second fatally in the heart; this is one reason why the prosecutor is indicating his preference to intepret the incident as self-defence and not indiscriminate fire.
PSG fans had been more recently noted for infighting, but the presence of the Israeli team clearly brought other tendencies to the surface. Yet both Hapoel and Maccabi Haifa have managed previous trips to potentially dodgy territory without this level of trouble breaking out -- the presence of hometown fans of the visiting team being the apparent "provocation" in this case. The events will inevitably be grist for the mill in this political season in France.
UPDATE: Much more, in French, from France 2 [also watch their nightly news]. The specific chant aimed at the policeman was "Dirty nigger ... Blue, White, Red, France for the French". It also appears that a single bullet injured one fan before hitting the second fatally in the heart; this is one reason why the prosecutor is indicating his preference to intepret the incident as self-defence and not indiscriminate fire.
Friday, November 24, 2006
Unholy month
While it might seem too easy to do this, the Pentagon doesn't deserve any better -- their generals having spent October insinuating that the Iraqi insurgents wanted American voters to support the Democrats. Hence it was just 4 days ago that the empty uniform represented by General William Caldwell was quoted as follows --
WASHINGTON, Nov. 20, 2006 – As expected, violence in Iraq has dropped following the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, a coalition spokesman said in Baghdad today.
Army Maj. Gen. William Caldwell said civilian and Iraqi security force casualties were at the lowest levels since the government was formed in May.
So far this month, the civilian casualty count is well below the casualty count in October and below the six-month average. The security force casualties reduced 21 percent over the past four weeks, and are at the lowest level in 25 weeks, he said.
“In Baghdad, there was a 22 percentage drop in casualties related to sectarian violence and executions,” Caldwell said during a televised news conference. “Coalition forces will continue to work closely with the Iraqi government and Iraqi security forces to control the sectarian violence and terrorist attacks.”
How are those percentages looking now?
WASHINGTON, Nov. 20, 2006 – As expected, violence in Iraq has dropped following the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, a coalition spokesman said in Baghdad today.
Army Maj. Gen. William Caldwell said civilian and Iraqi security force casualties were at the lowest levels since the government was formed in May.
So far this month, the civilian casualty count is well below the casualty count in October and below the six-month average. The security force casualties reduced 21 percent over the past four weeks, and are at the lowest level in 25 weeks, he said.
“In Baghdad, there was a 22 percentage drop in casualties related to sectarian violence and executions,” Caldwell said during a televised news conference. “Coalition forces will continue to work closely with the Iraqi government and Iraqi security forces to control the sectarian violence and terrorist attacks.”
How are those percentages looking now?
The more things change, again
RTE -- The Stormont Assembly building in Belfast has been evacuated after a bag was thrown into the main reception area.
The bag is believed to have been thrown by former loyalist gunman Michael Stone, who served a prison sentence for the murder of mourners at Milltown Cemetery in the 1980s.
A suspect device is being examined. The words 'SF/IRA scum' were painted in red on a wall at the front entrance. Michael Stone has been detained in connection with the incident.
Much more background on Michael Stone, and the never-ending series of events that he precipitated. See also the BBC's story on this morning's event, which has an amazing picture.
The bag is believed to have been thrown by former loyalist gunman Michael Stone, who served a prison sentence for the murder of mourners at Milltown Cemetery in the 1980s.
A suspect device is being examined. The words 'SF/IRA scum' were painted in red on a wall at the front entrance. Michael Stone has been detained in connection with the incident.
Much more background on Michael Stone, and the never-ending series of events that he precipitated. See also the BBC's story on this morning's event, which has an amazing picture.
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Not in their house
There was an obituary for Irish architect Sam Stephenson in yesterday's Times (UK). We had obliquely noted his death here. The obit slyly observes that most of his buildings are commercial and not residential, because the same political patrons who facilitated his Modernist/Brutalist projects for commercial buildings in Dublin preferred to live in traditional country mansions, with a resulting lack of such design commissions. Also odd, but not noted in the obit, is that the same elite class that showed such disdain for preserving Dublin now eagerly takes parts in consortiums buying trophy properties in London and Paris.
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Something's cooking
And not just turkey. The flurry of Middle East consultations now includes a Dick Cheney trip to Saudi Arabia -- leaving on Thanksgiving Friday, and announced with about 36 hours notice. What are they up to?
UPDATE: One part of the scheme is now apparent -- Cheney is in Baghdad for the "SURPRISE!" Thanksgiving visit to the troops.
2nd Update: The claim that Cheney is in Baghdad was being reported on radio news by Baghdad correspondents at 1400 GMT, citing Iraqi government sources. But as of 1600 GMT, the White House is denying it.
Final Update: While it's always possible that the original reports of Cheney in Baghdad were incorrect, an alternative is that a visit was planned but was put off at the very last minute as a result of the chaos in Baghdad.
OK we lied really final update 23 December: The intrigue has only deepened about what Cheney was up to in Riyadh since his visit. His trip was followed by the abrupt resignation of the Saudi Ambassador to the US, Prince Turki al-Faisal, who it seems returned home to be in a stronger position to battle Prince Bandar, who is pushing a pro-Bush line within the Saudi government, particularly regarding a hard line in Iran. It's not that the Saudis in general want to go easy in Iran, but they differ on strategy. There seems to be a constituency advocating stepped up support for Sunni insurgents in Iraq should the US withdraw, and for a big increase in oil output to drive down the price and hurt Iran economically. Apparently Prince Bandar, echoing the Bush line, is for some reason opposed to the latter. Here's one of several recent NYT articles trying to decipher the signs see also this Washington Post article.
UPDATE: One part of the scheme is now apparent -- Cheney is in Baghdad for the "SURPRISE!" Thanksgiving visit to the troops.
2nd Update: The claim that Cheney is in Baghdad was being reported on radio news by Baghdad correspondents at 1400 GMT, citing Iraqi government sources. But as of 1600 GMT, the White House is denying it.
Final Update: While it's always possible that the original reports of Cheney in Baghdad were incorrect, an alternative is that a visit was planned but was put off at the very last minute as a result of the chaos in Baghdad.
OK we lied really final update 23 December: The intrigue has only deepened about what Cheney was up to in Riyadh since his visit. His trip was followed by the abrupt resignation of the Saudi Ambassador to the US, Prince Turki al-Faisal, who it seems returned home to be in a stronger position to battle Prince Bandar, who is pushing a pro-Bush line within the Saudi government, particularly regarding a hard line in Iran. It's not that the Saudis in general want to go easy in Iran, but they differ on strategy. There seems to be a constituency advocating stepped up support for Sunni insurgents in Iraq should the US withdraw, and for a big increase in oil output to drive down the price and hurt Iran economically. Apparently Prince Bandar, echoing the Bush line, is for some reason opposed to the latter. Here's one of several recent NYT articles trying to decipher the signs see also this Washington Post article.
The more things change ...
During the 2nd reading of the St Andrews Agreement legislation --
Rev. Ian Paisley: Has the Secretary of State seen the recent statement by Sinn Fein saying that it will not call an ard fheis, or whatever it is called? Excuse me, I cannot pronounce these so-called Irish words; I am an Ulsterman.
UPDATE: Paisley once was not so specific about which province he was from --
The 'Sunday Life' 'newspaper' , June 23rd, 1991,page 12 -
"I would never repudiate the fact that I am an Irishman" - Ian Paisley !
Rev. Ian Paisley: Has the Secretary of State seen the recent statement by Sinn Fein saying that it will not call an ard fheis, or whatever it is called? Excuse me, I cannot pronounce these so-called Irish words; I am an Ulsterman.
UPDATE: Paisley once was not so specific about which province he was from --
The 'Sunday Life' 'newspaper' , June 23rd, 1991,page 12 -
"I would never repudiate the fact that I am an Irishman" - Ian Paisley !
The new geography
US National Security Adviser Steven Hadley, trying to explain why George Bush will meet the Iraqi PM next week in Jordan, and not right next door in the apparently too dangerous Green Zone --
Q Why not in the United States, or why a third country? And how long?
MR. HADLEY: The President is going to be in the region anyway; this will come at the end of his trip to Riga, for the NATO summit. It seemed, therefore, a good opportunity to do it. Coming to Jordan makes a lot of sense. Jordan has been very helpful and supportive of the unity government in Iraq, so that made it a particularly good venue. It was a venue, obviously, the President could reach easily, since he was in the region, and a venue that the Prime Minister could reach easily since it's next door.
Got that? -- Latvia and Jordan are in the same region.
Q Why not in the United States, or why a third country? And how long?
MR. HADLEY: The President is going to be in the region anyway; this will come at the end of his trip to Riga, for the NATO summit. It seemed, therefore, a good opportunity to do it. Coming to Jordan makes a lot of sense. Jordan has been very helpful and supportive of the unity government in Iraq, so that made it a particularly good venue. It was a venue, obviously, the President could reach easily, since he was in the region, and a venue that the Prime Minister could reach easily since it's next door.
Got that? -- Latvia and Jordan are in the same region.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Now watch this drive
George Bush in Hawaii --
I call for a full investigation of the [Gemayel] murder to identify those people and those forces behind the killing. We call on the international community to support Prime Minister Seniora's government. And one clear way to do so is for the United Nations Security Council to take all remaining steps needed to establish a special tribunal concerning the assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri, and to assure that those behind that killing and others that followed are brought to justice. I strongly believe the United Nations Security Council ought to act today. For the sake of peace, the free world must reject those who undermine young democracies and murder in the name of their hateful ideology.
I want to thank our Secretary of State for joining us. You know, one of the jobs of the President is to surround himself with smart, capable, strong people -- and I have done so in Condoleezza Rice. (Applause.)
I also did so at the altar. (Laughter.) And I'm pleased Laura is here, as well. (Applause.)
UPDATE: A statement later gets issued, with the advantage of not having been inserted right before the speech's applause lines.
I call for a full investigation of the [Gemayel] murder to identify those people and those forces behind the killing. We call on the international community to support Prime Minister Seniora's government. And one clear way to do so is for the United Nations Security Council to take all remaining steps needed to establish a special tribunal concerning the assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri, and to assure that those behind that killing and others that followed are brought to justice. I strongly believe the United Nations Security Council ought to act today. For the sake of peace, the free world must reject those who undermine young democracies and murder in the name of their hateful ideology.
I want to thank our Secretary of State for joining us. You know, one of the jobs of the President is to surround himself with smart, capable, strong people -- and I have done so in Condoleezza Rice. (Applause.)
I also did so at the altar. (Laughter.) And I'm pleased Laura is here, as well. (Applause.)
UPDATE: A statement later gets issued, with the advantage of not having been inserted right before the speech's applause lines.
Lebanon
In the hopelessly convoluted world of Lebanese politics, one of the many historical echoes in the assassination of Pierre Gemayel is that the assassination of his uncle, Bashir, in 1982, was the pretext for the Israeli occupation of then Palestinian West Beirut -- which they outsourced to Christian militias with disastrous consequences. In fact one remarkable thing is that despite the assassinations and quarter-century of turmoil since, so many of the principals and creations of the 1982 invasion are still around.
UPDATE: We should also note this now more laden sentence from Michael Young in today's Wall Street Journal --
Syria's Lebanese allies are trying to undermine the Hariri investigation from within, and are expected to escalate their efforts very soon, maybe even this week.
As several news articles explain, the Lebanese Cabinet is now very close to not having a quorum for any business, including the Hariri investigation.
And Talking Points Memo notes another association with the 1982 Gemayel killing.
UPDATE: We should also note this now more laden sentence from Michael Young in today's Wall Street Journal --
Syria's Lebanese allies are trying to undermine the Hariri investigation from within, and are expected to escalate their efforts very soon, maybe even this week.
As several news articles explain, the Lebanese Cabinet is now very close to not having a quorum for any business, including the Hariri investigation.
And Talking Points Memo notes another association with the 1982 Gemayel killing.
In the culture
It's not something that official or respectable pundit opinion in the US had yet grasped, but Abu Ghraib is now well embedded as a cultural reference point -- sufficiently so that it can be worked into hip-hop lyrics, as with Lupe Fiasco's Daydreaming:
I Had To Turn My Back On What Got You Paid
I Couldn't See Had The Hood On Me Like Abu Ghraib
As much as thinking about a plan to extricate itself from Iraq, a future White House will need to think about how to rescue its image.
I Had To Turn My Back On What Got You Paid
I Couldn't See Had The Hood On Me Like Abu Ghraib
As much as thinking about a plan to extricate itself from Iraq, a future White House will need to think about how to rescue its image.
Monday, November 20, 2006
Gimmick Beer (updated)
From a Wall Street Journal article (subs. req'd) about Blue Moon beer, a "craft" beer brewed by Molson --
Distributors credit the success of Blue Moon in part to its visual appeal in "on-premise" locations like bars. In what turned out to be a masterstroke of marketing, Keith Villa, Blue Moon's creator, decided that the company should suggest that bars to serve the beer with an orange slice garnishing the rim of the glass.
"When people saw a beer with an orange slice in it, it piqued their interest," says Jim Doney, president of Chicago Beverage Systems LLC. "They said, 'Hey, let me try one of those.' "
UPDATE 30 July 2009: Officer Crowley had the orange slice in the beer.
Photo: Ron Edmonds/AP
Sunday, November 19, 2006
Media Notes
Nice long (too long?) article in the Sunday New York Times magazine about Irish poet Paul Muldoon. It doesn't mention his classic Armagh/Armani poem but a few other couplets are listed. The compare and contrast with Seamus Heaney is interesting, and it's impossible to imagine Muldoon writing a poem to mark the accession of 10 new countries to the European Union in 2004, as Heaney did. Or if Muldoon did it, there'd be an elaborate joke buried somewhere.
Saturday, November 18, 2006
This ballot box only had room for 9 votes
US Vice President Dick Cheney, near the beginning of his speech to the elite conservative Federalist Society --
It's a privilege, today, to be in the company of my friend Ted Olson. Ted, of course, is a lawyer of high scholarship and persuasiveness. To this day I'm still impressed with his effective performance in a case called Bush v. Gore. (Laughter and applause.)
Dick Cheney, near the end of the same speech --
If an additional reason is needed for courts to show exceeding caution in national security affairs, it is this: They are unaccountable for the consequences of getting it wrong. The security of the country, and the strategies for its defense, are the province of the American people themselves. They exercise that control at the ballot box by voting us in or throwing us out.
[previous instance of right-wing ignorance about how recent presidential elections have been decided]
UPDATE: We should have mentioned Cheney's previous amnesia about 2000. And reacting to the above-linked speech and its reception, the National Review's Kathryn Jean Lopez tells the truth -
Federalist Society could double as the official Dick Cheney Fan Club. Where the heck else could you say such a thing? Okay, so maybe at the NRO convention.
It's a privilege, today, to be in the company of my friend Ted Olson. Ted, of course, is a lawyer of high scholarship and persuasiveness. To this day I'm still impressed with his effective performance in a case called Bush v. Gore. (Laughter and applause.)
Dick Cheney, near the end of the same speech --
If an additional reason is needed for courts to show exceeding caution in national security affairs, it is this: They are unaccountable for the consequences of getting it wrong. The security of the country, and the strategies for its defense, are the province of the American people themselves. They exercise that control at the ballot box by voting us in or throwing us out.
[previous instance of right-wing ignorance about how recent presidential elections have been decided]
UPDATE: We should have mentioned Cheney's previous amnesia about 2000. And reacting to the above-linked speech and its reception, the National Review's Kathryn Jean Lopez tells the truth -
Federalist Society could double as the official Dick Cheney Fan Club. Where the heck else could you say such a thing? Okay, so maybe at the NRO convention.
Popular at 60mph
A segment from a press briefing today in Hanoi by US National Security Adviser Steven Hadley --
Q And one question on Vietnam. As some of us who were here on the previous trip the President took to Vietnam, when President Clinton came, I guess was at the very end of his presidency -- have been struck a little bit by the difference in tone. It was a different time, of course. But he was out much more in public with the Vietnamese. I know the President went today to a POW/MIA center. I think President Clinton went out to one of the sites where they were recovering -- and so forth, and it was something that whole villages turned out for. I was wondering whether you are concerned at all that the Vietnamese people are not seeing President Bush in their midst quite as much as they might like?
MR. HADLEY: Well, if you'd been part of the President's motorcade as we've shuttled back and forth over the course of the day --
Q I have been in some, yes.
MR. HADLEY: Well, as you can tell, we're in the midst of the Vietnamese people all the time. It's been -- one of the things I think the President has enjoyed is the people hanging out of windows and going up and down the streets. You know, one of the things that's nice about this is the streets have not been cleared, but there are folks coming and going. And the President has been doing a lot of waving and getting a lot of waving and smiles.
Q And one question on Vietnam. As some of us who were here on the previous trip the President took to Vietnam, when President Clinton came, I guess was at the very end of his presidency -- have been struck a little bit by the difference in tone. It was a different time, of course. But he was out much more in public with the Vietnamese. I know the President went today to a POW/MIA center. I think President Clinton went out to one of the sites where they were recovering -- and so forth, and it was something that whole villages turned out for. I was wondering whether you are concerned at all that the Vietnamese people are not seeing President Bush in their midst quite as much as they might like?
MR. HADLEY: Well, if you'd been part of the President's motorcade as we've shuttled back and forth over the course of the day --
Q I have been in some, yes.
MR. HADLEY: Well, as you can tell, we're in the midst of the Vietnamese people all the time. It's been -- one of the things I think the President has enjoyed is the people hanging out of windows and going up and down the streets. You know, one of the things that's nice about this is the streets have not been cleared, but there are folks coming and going. And the President has been doing a lot of waving and getting a lot of waving and smiles.
Friday, November 17, 2006
John Howard's pride confiscated at airport!
Or maybe he forgot it at home. But anyway, in the same Q&A with Bush as below, a reporter asked about the case of Australian citizen David Hicks, detained indefinitely at Guantanamo Bay --
Q Mr. President, did you discuss the issue of David Hicks at all with the Prime Minister? And when do you think he might come to trial?
PRESIDENT BUSH: Yes, we did. The Prime Minister brought it up. He was pleased that I was able to sign the military tribunal bill -- in other words, a way forward for somebody like Hicks to be able to get a day in court. And he was asking me, do I have a timetable in mind as to when Hicks' trial will be coming forth. I told him I didn't, although we hope that Hicks is one of the early people that will have a day in court.
Interestingly enough, as I understand, Hicks has lawyers that may be trying to appeal certain aspects of the law we passed. If that's the case, he's having his day in court, in an interesting way. But I believe Hicks deserves a trial and is going to get it.
So Howard stood there as Bush gave him something between a brush-off and an outright lie, as there is no immediate plan to try any of the Gitmo detainees, the would-be overseer of such trials having just resigned. Note also Bush's weird implication that one gets one's "day in court" by challenging the system under which you're held, a construction that truly merits the phrase Kafkaesque.
Incidentally, the Q&A ended with a bizarre reminder of Bush's obsession with not seeming weak -- the strong horse:
Q One more, do you feel generous, one more?
PRESIDENT BUSH: No, I'm not generous. It's also hot out here, Gregory. We're in the sun, you're not. (Laughter.)
Q I don't see you sweat.
PRESIDENT BUSH: That's the problem, you might see me sweat.
The Leader does not sweat.
UPDATE: The lack of respect for Australia extends to Condi Rice not knowing the Foreign Minister's name, if this transcript is accurate --
QUESTION: The Australian Government, as you know, has been a close and supportive ally through this enterprise. As this fresh look, as you put it, goes on, what sort of level of consultation can the Australians expect?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, I had an extensive discussion yesterday with Alexander Downing,
FINAL UPDATE: A New York Times article about Hicks and his military lawyer Michael Mori.
Q Mr. President, did you discuss the issue of David Hicks at all with the Prime Minister? And when do you think he might come to trial?
PRESIDENT BUSH: Yes, we did. The Prime Minister brought it up. He was pleased that I was able to sign the military tribunal bill -- in other words, a way forward for somebody like Hicks to be able to get a day in court. And he was asking me, do I have a timetable in mind as to when Hicks' trial will be coming forth. I told him I didn't, although we hope that Hicks is one of the early people that will have a day in court.
Interestingly enough, as I understand, Hicks has lawyers that may be trying to appeal certain aspects of the law we passed. If that's the case, he's having his day in court, in an interesting way. But I believe Hicks deserves a trial and is going to get it.
So Howard stood there as Bush gave him something between a brush-off and an outright lie, as there is no immediate plan to try any of the Gitmo detainees, the would-be overseer of such trials having just resigned. Note also Bush's weird implication that one gets one's "day in court" by challenging the system under which you're held, a construction that truly merits the phrase Kafkaesque.
Incidentally, the Q&A ended with a bizarre reminder of Bush's obsession with not seeming weak -- the strong horse:
Q One more, do you feel generous, one more?
PRESIDENT BUSH: No, I'm not generous. It's also hot out here, Gregory. We're in the sun, you're not. (Laughter.)
Q I don't see you sweat.
PRESIDENT BUSH: That's the problem, you might see me sweat.
The Leader does not sweat.
UPDATE: The lack of respect for Australia extends to Condi Rice not knowing the Foreign Minister's name, if this transcript is accurate --
QUESTION: The Australian Government, as you know, has been a close and supportive ally through this enterprise. As this fresh look, as you put it, goes on, what sort of level of consultation can the Australians expect?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, I had an extensive discussion yesterday with Alexander Downing,
FINAL UPDATE: A New York Times article about Hicks and his military lawyer Michael Mori.
He only reads it for the sports pages
George Bush, in a photo-op Q&A with Australian PM John Howard --
Q You mentioned troop postures in Iraq. There's a report that you may want to send 30,000 additional troops to Iraq. Is that something --
PRESIDENT BUSH: Where was that report?
Q In the Guardian newspaper.
PRESIDENT BUSH: Guardian newspaper? Well, I don't read that paper often.
Q You mentioned troop postures in Iraq. There's a report that you may want to send 30,000 additional troops to Iraq. Is that something --
PRESIDENT BUSH: Where was that report?
Q In the Guardian newspaper.
PRESIDENT BUSH: Guardian newspaper? Well, I don't read that paper often.
Easy to get into, difficult to get out of
Even in the rare admissions of flaws in the planning for the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, the spinners in Washington and London seek to carve out the initial attack, overseen by George Bush's friend General Tommy Franks, as a singular success. Today's kidnappings of foreigners in southern Iraq highlights once again a catastrophic flaw in the Tommy Franks invasion plan -- it never secured the supply line from Kuwait to Baghdad. The track record of invasions of Russia must not be anywhere on the US military strategy curriculum.
UPDATE 29 JULY 2007: Just a note about this kidnapping -- the victims (Joshua Munns, Paul Reuben, Jonathan Cote, John Young, and an unnamed Austrian) have never been found. In strategic terms, they fell foul of the Bush-Franks invasion plan. But in tactical terms, they had the misfortune of working for an unscrupulous employer, the kind that apparently thrives in Iraq.
UPDATE 29 JULY 2007: Just a note about this kidnapping -- the victims (Joshua Munns, Paul Reuben, Jonathan Cote, John Young, and an unnamed Austrian) have never been found. In strategic terms, they fell foul of the Bush-Franks invasion plan. But in tactical terms, they had the misfortune of working for an unscrupulous employer, the kind that apparently thrives in Iraq.
Adverse selection
Today's New York Times feels the need to provide source protection for this anecdote in an Iraq-Vietnam analogy story --
In private, Mr. Bush says there is another big difference between then and now — the draft. There is little question that by signing up to be a pilot in the Texas Air National Guard, the risk was low that he would end up in Vietnam as a 23-year-old. But according to an academic called into the White House recently, Mr. Bush said the administration could never have sustained this effort in Iraq, politically, without an all-volunteer force. He declined to be named because he was relaying a private conversation.
But there is no need for the anonymity or lack of a direct quote, because Bush has been more explicit himself about why this is so: a the conscript army in Vietnam didn't understand the stakes --
Secondly -- which is different from Vietnam -- secondly, in terms of our troops, this is a volunteer Army. Vietnam wasn't a volunteer Army, as you know. And in this volunteer Army, people -- the troops understand the consequences of Iraq in the global war on terror.
The extent to which this inference of stupid conscripts was buried by the media apparently now extends to attaching a veneer of secrecy to other people who report him saying the same thing. The fetishisation of an all-volunteer army probably also explains why this particular Milton Friedman proposal was elevated to prime position in the White House statement marking his death.
In private, Mr. Bush says there is another big difference between then and now — the draft. There is little question that by signing up to be a pilot in the Texas Air National Guard, the risk was low that he would end up in Vietnam as a 23-year-old. But according to an academic called into the White House recently, Mr. Bush said the administration could never have sustained this effort in Iraq, politically, without an all-volunteer force. He declined to be named because he was relaying a private conversation.
But there is no need for the anonymity or lack of a direct quote, because Bush has been more explicit himself about why this is so: a the conscript army in Vietnam didn't understand the stakes --
Secondly -- which is different from Vietnam -- secondly, in terms of our troops, this is a volunteer Army. Vietnam wasn't a volunteer Army, as you know. And in this volunteer Army, people -- the troops understand the consequences of Iraq in the global war on terror.
The extent to which this inference of stupid conscripts was buried by the media apparently now extends to attaching a veneer of secrecy to other people who report him saying the same thing. The fetishisation of an all-volunteer army probably also explains why this particular Milton Friedman proposal was elevated to prime position in the White House statement marking his death.
Thursday, November 16, 2006
Uncle Miltie
The inevitable tributes to Nobel Prize winning economist Milton Friedman, who has died, will likely conflate his intellectual brand of conservatism with an implied claim that he was the inspiration for Republican party policies in general, and George Bush policies in particular. This would be wrong, not least because Friedman opposed the Iraq war, on the simple ground that it was a war of aggression.
UPDATE: If one was making a list of Friedman's contributions, would the three issues that get the lead emphasis in the White House statement -- school choice, tax reductions, and an all-volunteer army -- be top of the list? Read a typical obit and see how highly they feature.
UPDATE: If one was making a list of Friedman's contributions, would the three issues that get the lead emphasis in the White House statement -- school choice, tax reductions, and an all-volunteer army -- be top of the list? Read a typical obit and see how highly they feature.
Falling value detainees
Among the pre-election stunts by George Bush now quietly dumped was his claim that early in 2007, he would begin his executive branch trials of the 9/11 planners, including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, having recently moved them to Guantanamo Bay. In fact, yesterday's Wall Street Journal politics blog noted that the would-be overseer of the trials has resigned, no replacement has yet been found, and anyway, none of the 14 "high value detainees" including the suspected 9/11 plotters are slated for trial anytime soon.
UPDATE 18 NOV: There won't even be a building for the trials until July, and that's assuming that Congress approves the money for the structure, which is not guaranteed.
UPDATE 18 NOV: There won't even be a building for the trials until July, and that's assuming that Congress approves the money for the structure, which is not guaranteed.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)