This means war

Unknown but presumed Iranian hackers enter the servers of a Bahrain media conglomerate and replace maps of the, er, Gulf with one labeling it as the "Persian Gulf."

One hopes this is not the evidence that the US is now citing of Iran's involvement in Bahrain's political unrest.

Devalued Irish currency?

From the UK SAS/Foreign Office fiasco in Libya (BBC) --

Witnesses said that when the men's bags were checked they were found to contain arms, ammunition, explosives, maps and passports from at least four different nationalities.

Which other nationalities?  We're not that far after the Israel/Dubai imbroglio.

If they're not near the mosques, we should be fine

Wall Street Journal editorial --

But oil traders are already beginning to discount for the risks if the demand for more political freedom also spreads to the Kingdom [Saudi Arabia], which produces 10% of the world's oil. Karen Elliott House's recent piece on these pages explained in persuasive detail why that is not a far-fetched scenario. We hope the Obama Administration is making contingency military plans to protect those oil fields if it comes to that.

It's rarely set out so clearly. If the Saudi people mount a struggle for more political freedom, the US should invade and seize the oil fields.

Godsend

The government of Iran should be under the same popular pressure as governments in the Arab states.  But all they have to do, it's increasingly clear, is to hang on long enough for it to become apparent that the guns in Bahrain will keep firing until the Shia stop complaining, and they'll have their geopolitical issue.  When we find, as seems likely, that the Bahrain operation is being pushed by Saudi Arabia, they'll be home free.   It's not inconceivable that we'll be discussing how to draw the line between an "invitation" for foreign help and an invasion.

Helping themselves

Middle East expert Fouad "Bush of Arabia" Ajami, who has ceaselessly bashed Barack Obama since he came into office, writing in December 2010 --

At the remove of a brief interlude, we can now unequivocally admit that the forces of Arab autocracy have turned back the challenge to their dominion. True, they had been unable to overthrow this chaotic new democracy in Iraq. The Arab brigades had not converged on Baghdad, from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and Syria. American power had provided a shield for this new Iraqi order. And the Iraqis were to develop a surprising attachment to this new experiment with liberty.



There was blood in the streets, and there was chaos, but the Iraqis were to discover deep within them a taste for elections, and for a political life beyond despotic rule. For their part, the Arab autocrats nearby had waited out the appeal of Iraq’s liberty. They had proven effective, it has to be granted them, at frightening their own populations with the violence that was playing out in Iraq.

What issued in the Arab world was a standoff: Iraq had not provided the subversive democratic example that the established regimes had feared. The rulers in Damascus, Amman, Cairo, Riyadh, and far-off Tunis, Tripoli, and Algiers had ridden out the storm. No ruling regime had fallen, or had bent to the will of the opposition. ... 
 
In the oddest of twists, the triumph of the Democratic Party, and its standard-bearer Barack Obama, was a boon for the Arab autocracies. No sooner had he come to power had President Obama sent forth the word that his predecessor’s diplomacy of freedom would be abandoned.
 
Can we say safely at this point that promoting freedom in the Arab world might be less to do with invasions and Churchillian appeals to freedom, and more about shutting the f*** up while actual Arab people come up with their own mode of unlocking their sclerotic countries?  
 
Incidentally, Ajami's article displays a syndrome common to conservative critiques of Obama's Lebanon policy, namely that it ignores the debilitating effects on the country's politics of the Israeli invasion of 2006.

He got the ammo

Keith Olbermann is out at MSNBC.

MSNBC, via its NBC parent, just got taken over by Comcast.  The Comcast CEO is Brian Roberts.  May 2010 --

Mediaweek‘s Anthony Crupi was also at the keynote, and reports that Roberts dodged a question from Chernin (who once counted Fox News among the divisions he oversaw) about what he would do regarding MSNBC firebrand Keith Olbermann.

“Let’s have that conversation in 12 months when we’re playing with live ammo,” Roberts said, before adding that he would ensure that NBC News continued to “keep [its coverage] down the middle, whatever that means.”

Don't mention the pork

Founder of disgraced military contractor Blackwater, Erik Prince, has, like the Sex and the City girls, decided that the real fun is to be in had in Abu Dhabi. Explaining his move --

"I’m trying [Abu Dhabi] because it feels a lot like Singapore. Rule of law, a friendly business climate, low to no taxes, free trade and no out of control trial lawyers or labour unions. It’s pro-business and opportunity.”

This from a man whose entire business model depends on government contracts.

UPDATE 13 May: He's actually building a mercenary army for the UAE.

Why you should never connect through JFK

If you think missed connections and lost bags are bad enough ...

Four guns went missing and were believed to have been stolen from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security detail after American Airlines lost luggage containing the weapons, NBC reported.

It said the Glock 9mm guns had been placed in checked baggage -- as security protocol dictates -- at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport and were supposed to be placed on a flight to Washington for Israeli agents assigned to Netanyahu, who was meeting President Barack Obama on Tuesday.

But workers mistakenly sent the luggage to Los Angeles where it was learned the guns were missing, and police said they believe they were stolen, NBC television reported Tuesday out of New York city.

Someone was set up

Here's a strange one. The Ambassador from the UAE to the USA did a public interview with Jeffrey Goldberg from The Atlantic at the Aspen Ideas Festival in Colorado. But the Washington Times is first out of the block with actual quotes and the apparent scoop -- that the UAE would rather see an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities than have Iran with nuclear weapons. The Washington Times was remarkably efficient in getting approving quotes from a usual suspects list (e.g. John Bolton), while National Review's Cliff May hails "an Arab neocon."

Now Goldberg himself is a tad more circumspect although he also recognizes the Iran scoop in the quotes. But the UAE government has rushed out an official statement denying the imputed meaning of the quotes, if not the quotes themselves --

"These statements came as part of general discussions held on the sidelines of an unofficial gathering and were taken out of their context in which Mr. Otaiba was speaking," the senior official said. "Iran is a neighboring country and we maintain historic relations with it." He stressed that "the UAE respects and believes in the sovereignty of other states and in the principle of non-interference, of all forms, in their internal affairs." "Already, the UAE declared, more than one time and in official statements issued by the Foreign Ministry, its position on the Iranian nuclear issue," Al-Haidan added.

"The UAE totally rejects the use of force as a solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and rather calls for a solution through political means that are based on the international legitimacy, transparency as well as the need for working, through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), on the right of all states to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

All that can be said at this point is that Ambassador seems to have been a tad unaware of the hornets nest he was walking into. So let's see the transcript and perhaps the likely "recall for consultations". Worth watching.

UPDATE: The Wall Street Journal says that there were two sets of remarks, one in public to Goldberg and another on the sidelines (and perhaps off the record) to the Washington Times.

The news magazine demographic

From the US Dept of Justice complaint describing the alleged Russian "espionage" ring and in particular the segment relating to the journey of "Richard Murphy" back to Moscow with a particular computer; Murphy would buy a US-Milan plane ticket and then in Milan get a fake Irish passport in the name of Eunan Doherty for his laundered journey to Moscow. But of course he would need to able to recognize his handler in Milan ...

Password [Handler] - "Excuse me, could we have met in Malta in 1999" ... [Murphy's reply] "Yes indeed , I was in La Valetta, but in 2000" ....

[Murphy's] recognition sign: "Time" magazine in [his] hands, (title to be seen from outside).

Sign of danger:
"Time" magazine in [his] left hand (title to be seen from outside).

Think carefully about how you carry your print publications in public. Someone could be watching.

Different job, different times

European Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, in a New York Times interview --

Mr. Barroso said: “I was surprised by those remarks. They don’t conform to the facts. The distance Turkey started to show” from NATO partners and the West “started with the invasion of Iraq and the pressure put on Turkey by the previous U.S. administration” of President George W. Bush.

Above, Mr Barroso, then as Portuguese president, hosting the Bush-Blair war council on Iraq in the Azores, right before the invasion in March 2003. Not only did he not voice any qualms then, 3 months later he popped up in the White House to say --

Now you [George Bush] are taking great risks in the Middle East peace process. Let me congratulate you for that initiative, for re-energizing the peace process. I think the United States of America and Europe -- Portugal being a European country -- we have a lot to do together and I am very much looking forward to this opportunity to discuss with you, and always with the spirit of friendship that exists between the Portuguese and the American people, discuss all these ideas.

And we'll stand by you, because I think that what you have been doing is really great achievement. We have won the war, now we all have to win the peace. And I think that we are going to reach that goal.

One irony: the new Barroso, who recognizes the role of Iraq in damaging US-Turkey relations, is the right one. But this blind spot remains strong among most American conservatives, who strain for other explanations of the Turkish alienation even when it's staring them in the face.

Commentary and dissent not merged

A selection of quotes from the blog of Commentary Magazine over the last couple of days --

Jennifer Rubin -- The “sick addiction” to the Democratic Party prevents the majority of American Jewry from recognizing who their true pro-Israel allies are.

Jonathan Tobin -- As with the case of Israel’s December 2008 counterattack on terrorist strongholds in Gaza after years of ceaseless missile attacks on its southern towns and villages, today’s naval confrontation offers American Jews a stark choice. They can back Israel or Hamas.

Particular bizarre about the 1st quote is its reverse Marxist mode of analysis -- that voting based on economic and social factors is an opium that prevents American Jews from seeing their "true" allegiance to Benjamin Netanyahu's version of Israel.

UPDATE: More Jennifer Rubin --

There is a single question that every individual, group, and nation must answer. To borrow from the most pro-Israel president since Harry Truman: if you are not with Israel, you are against her. And if you do not oppose with every fiber of your being and every instrument at your disposal that which intends the Jewish state harm, you are enabling her destroyers.

Echoes

The man-made sand barriers that Louisiana is proposing to erect to block the Gulf oil spill are called berms.

That word rang a bell. George Bush, September 2006 --

THE PRESIDENT: No, no. The enemy is changing tactics, and we're adapting. That's what's happening. I asked General Casey today, have you got what you need? He said, yes, I've got what I need.

We all want the troops to come home as quickly as possible. But they'll be coming home when our commanders say the Iraqi government is capable of defending itself and sustaining itself and is governing itself. And, you know, I was hoping we would have -- be able to -- hopefully, Casey would come and say, you know, Mr. President, there's a chance to have fewer troops there. It looked like that might be the case -- until the violence started rising in Baghdad, and it spiked in June and July, as you know -- or increased in June and July.

And so they've got a plan now, they've adapted. The enemy moves; we'll help the Iraqis move. So they're building a berm around the city to make it harder for people to come in with explosive devices, for example.

This was the time when the Iraq war was going disastrously and then Bush seemed to think that a moat or ditch around the city might help things. Perhaps as the Texas oil man he always said he was, berms were standard procedure for keeping bad stuff out.

That's not a good omen for the new plan.

This can't be good

The recently quiet Dick Cheney suddenly pops up in Riyadh to meet with Saudi King Abdullah. Worth keeping an eye on whether some new Gulf-related meme creeps into Fox News over the next week.

Photo: Saudi Press Agency

The Emir of Distraction

When the Iraq war was going off the rails in the summer of 2007, the US military came up with a brilliant solution to an embarrassing and frustrating problem: the mutiple instances of reported capture or death of Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the apparent leader of the potent Sunni terrorist group the Islamic State of Iraq. The solution: they declared that Abu Omar al-Baghdadi was a fictional character. A fairly convoluted structure was put forward in which foreigners, anxious to hide the foreign nature of their group, had created an Iraqi identity to front for the group.

But the problem didn't go away. Last April, in the wake of two large bomb attacks, and needing to show progress in what was now their own war on terror, the Iraqi government claimed to have captured the previous fictional character. But then not much more was heard from him.

Move forward now to the aftermath of the Iraqi election, seemingly lost fair and square by Bush favourite PM Nouri al-Maliki to Sunni rival Iyad Allawi (and with the Gulf states pointedly keeping al-Maliki out of the procession of Iraqi visitors to the Gulf), the need to show progress on security, a big issue in the election, and direct attention to Sunni terrorism, and who should pop out of the hat but ....

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki announced the killings of Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri at a news conference in Baghdad and showed reporters photographs of their bloody corpses. The deaths were later confirmed by U.S. military officials in a statement.

The U.S. military said they were killed in a nighttime raid on their safe house Sunday near Tikrit, the hometown of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. An American helicopter crashed during the assault, killing one U.S. soldier, the military said.

U.S. forces commander Gen. Raymond Odierno praised the operation.

Predictably, Max Boot at Commentary, who is supposed to know Iraq well, hailed it as "good news from Iraq" -- that thing that the liberal media was not reporting in 2007.

There isn't yet any word on how his latest death is to be reconciled with his previous ones or his spells in custody. His co-deceased, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, also has a history. The Egyptian surname made him a more obvious candidate as the foreign puppet master of the terrorist group, but his picture (the one that is circulating with today's story) was used by The Times (UK) as that of an al-Qaeda operative killed in Pakistan. That might just be the perils of letting the Google do your research, but it may also indicate that considerable confusion surrounds his identity as well.

In a moment of candour, the US military has recently said that it is not sure who comprises the remaining terrorist insurgency in Iraq. This appears to be true in a very literal sense.

UPDATE: You can't keep a bad man down. With Abu Omar al-Baghdadi securely in the grave, Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud RIP (January 2010) is alive and well as of May.

US President in "meets dodgy leader" shock

Over at Contentions, Jennifer Rubin and Peter Wehner are angry that President Obama would have a meeting with the President of a dubious human rights case like Kazakhstan and say nice things about that leader.

Above, George Bush with Dick Cheney's favourite central Asian autocrat, President Nazarbayev, at the White House in 2006.

On the other hand, the Contentions items do direct attention to a bizarre statement at Sunday's White House conference call media briefing by Mike McFaul, National Security Council Senior Director for Russia and the Caucasus --

Q Hi, this is for Mike McFaul. When you were discussing the discussion between President Nazarbayev and President Obama about human rights and democracy, you seemed to be suggesting there was some equivalence between their issues of democracy and the United States’ issues, when you said that President Obama assured him that we, too, are working on our democracy. Is there equivalence between the problems that President Nazarbayev is confronting and the state of democracy in the United States?

MR. McFAUL: Absolutely not, Jonathan. To be clear, what the President was saying is that all democracies need to work to improve their democracies. And he’s taken, I think, rather historic steps to improve our own democracy since coming to office here in the United States. There was no equivalence meant whatsoever.

Huh?

Bush White House photo by Eric Draper

Beer Goggles

Advertisement for Heineken at bus stop in Washington DC ("There are no innocent bystanders"). A country fighting at least two wars and with a collateral damage controversy in the news.

Wrong Horse

Liz Cheney's latest broadside, echoing through the usual Angry Right outlets --

There is a saying in the Arab world: “It is more dangerous to be America’s friend than to be her enemy.”

Leave aside that she uses this expression in connection with Hamid Karzai, who recently threatened to join the Taliban and isn't Arab. Only an Arabic speaker can tell us for sure whether there is such a saying, but there's not much record of such an expression. Furthermore, the Google quickly determines that the expression entered American political discourse with ... Henry Kissinger --

"Nixon should be told that it is probably an objective of Clifford to depose Thieu (South Vietnamese president Nguyen Van Thieu) before Nixon is inaugurated. Word should be gotten to Nixon that if Thieu meets the same fate as Diem, the word will go out to the nations of the world that it may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal." [Source: Barry Popik]

And there's a Pat Buchanan article that concurs.

One hopes that Cheney is not comparing the UK, Israel, and Afghanistan (the supposed victims of the slaps) to South Vietnam. And at a time of war!

Tell it like it is

Ahmad Chalabi in the Wall Street Journal on his vision for Iraq --

We are proposing the creation of a regional alliance among Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran to bring together our geographic, economic, water and oil resources into a coherent framework.

Image: Wikipedia Commons

The puppetmasters

As the Hamas-Dubai revelations get more bizarre, here's something to ponder. There's a fine tradition of hypothesizing the existence of grand Iranian conspiracies for various events. For instance, Iran got the US Republicans to sell them weapons and get rid of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein. It's almost as if they control the Republican party!

Anyway, back to Hamas-Dubai. Matthias Küntzel has an interesting opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal discussing the activities of the German-Emirati Joint Council for Industry & Commerce, which he argues is acting as a sanctions-busting vehicle for routing German exports to Iran through Dubai.

This raises the more general issue that a key obstacle to sanctions on Iran is the adverse impact that sanctions would have on Dubai, through which much of this trade passes. Thus if new sanctions are imposed on Iran, the United Arab Emirates would come under enormous pressure to shut the Dubai channel down.

Unless, that is, the countries that might be putting such pressure on the UAE would be a little reluctant to do so, in the context of the UAE having a legimate greviance with them about a separate issue. Such as why they are not doing anything about Israel's use of their passports and banking systems to conduct an assassination in Dubai.

In other words, the assassination revelations came at a very awkward time. And after all, the Dubai police chief says that two of the latest batch of named operatives were last seen heading towards ... Iran!