A reprieve for Shannon?

It's taken for granted that Shannon airport will decline in importance for transatlantic commercial (if not military) air travel when the new EU-US air travel agreement replaces the current Ireland-US bilateral agreement which includes the Shannon stopover requirement and limits direct flights from Ireland to US airports. But as today's Wall Street Journal explains (subs. req'd), it's by no means certain that the proposed EU-US treaty will be approved, and in fact if the Dubai ports controversy is any indication, its prospects may have worsened. There are several sticking points but the key one is a concession that the Bush Administration gave the EU to sidestep the ban on foreign ownership of US airlines:

To get around that, the administration wants to reinterpret a regulation that requires foreigners exercise "no semblance" of control over a U.S. airline. The change would let non-U.S. citizens influence an array of operations, including marketing, routes and types of equipment used. Decisions on safety, security and use of craft to aid the military would remain in U.S. citizens' hands. The caps on stock ownership wouldn't change. The proposal has divided the U.S. airline industry.

If nothing else, note that the Administration's talent for redefining plain English extends beyond the GWOT, but as with the Dubai row, they risk running into their own stirring-up of terrorism fears. Anyway, the parochial Irish interest is that the government agreed to dump the Shannon stopover in anticipation of the new deal, but:

If the treaty isn't approved, thorny issues arise. Current bilateral agreements between individual EU countries and the U.S. are illegal, according to an EU court ruling. If there isn't a new treaty to replace them, the commission probably would order EU member states to renounce the treaties, officials say, creating damaging uncertainty in the airline business and setting up court battles between the commission and EU member states.

This could present a nasty electoral grenade for Bertie in Clare and Limerick should it become an issue in the next few months.

UPDATE 10 MARCH: The EU-US pact is now officially in trouble, as Congressional Republicans look to block the rule change on foreign control of US airlines (via WSJ) --

An effort to let foreigners exercise greater control over U.S. airlines suffered a setback in the House amid the uproar over Dubai ownership of some U.S. port operations.

The House Appropriations Committee directed the Bush administration to put its airline plan on hold. “Congress must exercise vigorous and very careful oversight over these agencies to be sure we’re protecting American sovereignty and American control over these industries,” said Rep. John Culberson (R., Texas), who sponsored the airline amendment to an emergency spending bill for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan along with Hurricane Katrina aid.

The amendment is non-binding, but it does say the committee is “seriously concerned” about the matter and asks the administration to put the regulation on hold for 120 days. The Bush administration has said the regulation would help attract foreign investors. It is also an important step toward sealing an “open skies” deal with the European Union, allowing for deregulated flow of airline traffic across the Atlantic. The Europeans have said they won’t approve the deal without the rule change on foreign control.