Andrew Sullivan observes
These two Catholic countries [Spain & Portugal] fascinate me, because, like Ireland, they are leading examples of how once-theoconservative nations have moved into modernity.
It is an interesting comparison, although the application of the label "theoconservative" is a stretch, since Sullivan has used that in the US context to refer to an alliance of religious conservatives with one particular political party, whereas in the European case, the embodiment of Catholic teaching in law reflected a broad swathe of opinion across many parties (even if some were better at using it for their own purposes).
But one thing the Portugal comparison does highlight is how narrow the margin for change is when it happens: the abortion referendum in Portugal technically failed due to low turnout, although the government is now planning on legislating anyway. The Republic of Ireland's divorce referendum passed in 1995 on the 2nd attempt by a less than one percent margin -- just over 9,000 votes, and abortion law remains far stricter than the new law in Portugal will be. Yet once change does occur, it seems to become entrenched, vindicating one fear of the church that once people see the more liberal regime in action, they'll get to like it.
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