Spectators

While there are various selections as to the key paragraphs in the unclassified portion of the new US National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, inevitable in such a condensed document, our own nomination is this -

A number of identifiable internal security and political triggering events, including sustained mass sectarian killings, assassination of major religious and political leaders, and a complete Sunni defection from the government have the potential to convulse severely Iraq’s security environment. Should these events take place, they could spark an abrupt increase in communal and insurgent violence and shift Iraq’s trajectory from gradual decline to rapid deterioration with grave humanitarian, political, and security consequences. Three prospective security paths might then emerge:

Chaos Leading to Partition ...

Emergence of a Shia Strongman ...

Anarchic Fragmentation of Power...

Note that 20,000 extra US troops will have little power to prevent these "identifiable ... events", the only issue facing them being whether to stick around to see which of the three paths emerges afterwards.