With the death of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, Saudi Arabia is into its first uncertain succession since the 1980s. But historically, abrupt change at the top, including by assassination, happened frequently in the Gulf. The longevity of the current cohort of rulers disguised that fact. Today, the Arabian Peninsula had two changes in head of state (Yemen also) without AQAP having to lift a finger. That is before all the regional chaos has even played out directly in the Gulf. 2015 will be a long year.