The Ferry forecast

If your travel plans in the next few weeks involve taking ferries between Ireland, Britain, and France, now might be a good time to reconsider them. Several companies on the key routes are embarking upon big rationalisation programs, resulting in a militant reaction from the affected workers. The basic outline is the same in all cases -- the long-time operators are under pressure from low-cost airlines, and flag-of-convenience rules mean that the operators, or their potential competitors, can avoid "home country" labour market regulations, so the temptation to fire en masse and recruit from scratch is extremely high.

The most spectacular manifestation of worker displeasure so far has come with a strike on French carrier SNCM, which runs ferries between the mainland and Corsica and North Africa. A couple of days ago, union workers stormed a ferry, the Pascal Paoli, in the dock at Marseilles, and sailed it to Bastia in Corsica. The strikers are in principle now subject to prosecution for piracy, creating an additional complication for the government already trying to decide how to resolve the original dispute. It doesn't help that the strike has fused with Corsican separatism to become a broad vehicle of protest against the government in Paris.

Things in Ireland are in some ways more fraught. The most obvious sign of panic is a bizarre outburst from Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, who normally has little to say about corporate shenanigans, but the Irish Times (subs. req'd) notes his extensive quotes on the cost-cutting plan of Irish Ferries:

"The manner in which this matter has been conducted by the company in recent days is deplorable. I would not defend for one second the manner in which the company has acted. It has told a staff of over 500 the terms and if they do not get out, they will lose their benefits and God knows what will happen to them and that when they are out the door in a few days the jobs will be filled by non-nationals from God knows where and on conditions that nobody knows," he said.

"That is what it is at. It is sharp practice, is totally unacceptable in the Irish labour context and is used on the basis of the flag of convenience.

This from a government that didn't seem overly troubled with Turkish workers on abusive contracts on Irish infrastructure projects. And based on the French experience, Bertie's "God knows where" is probably just Poland -- a country admitted to the EU, with much fanfare, under Bertie Ahern's watch last year. But Bertie's spinners have clearly decided that it was time for a populist stance on something, and Irish Ferries drew the short straw. The unions have likewise decided to make a stand, and dropped a fairly broad hint of disruptive action if they don't get their way:

SIPTU [trade union], which was also invited to the Labour Court talks, has warned that if the workers are displaced there will be industrial action both in Ireland and abroad. They have warned that they will use all their firepower to uphold the rights of workers at the company.

One possibility: port blockades in Ireland, Britain, and France, manned by sympathetic seamen's unions facing the same redundancy as the Irish sailors. Predicted ultimate resolution: given Bertie's preferred path of least resistance to every problem, expect massive state-funded buyouts for redundant workers.