Which would mean Petraeus will be played by Catherine O'Hara

A great mystery which has been bothering your blogger for the last 2 days has been solved. Who does US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker sound like when he's in that weird detached monotone voice mode, which seems to be his main mode?

He sounds like Mitch Cohen, from A Mighty Wind. Unfortunately teh Google doesn't find any Mitch voice excerpts but here's his famous duet with partner Mickey. Not hard to imagine Crocker supplying the vocals in Mitch's stead.

If you're against the Iraq war, this is what you look like

According to the cartoon/illustration accompanying Norman "World War IV" Podhoretz's observations (subs. req'd; alt. free link) about Iraq in the 9/11 edition of the Wall Street Journal.

UPDATE: The url for the cartoon on the Opinion Journal site is http://opinionjournal.com/extra/091107hippies.jpg.

One bag per person/remove shoes?

In what seems like an idiotic piece of symbolism thinly disguising the real intent, the Wall Street Journal (subs. req'd) reports --

BARDA, Iraq -- The Pentagon is preparing to build its first base for U.S. forces near the Iraqi-Iranian border, in a major new effort to curb the flow of advanced Iranian weaponry to Shiite militants across Iraq.

The push also includes construction of fortified checkpoints on the major highways leading from the Iranian border to Baghdad and the installation of X-ray machines and explosives-detecting sensors at the only formal border crossing between Iran and Iraq.

The measures come as the U.S. high command in Iraq has begun to recalibrate the overall American mission in the country to focus less on the Sunni Muslim radicals who were long the primary U.S. targets of pacifying the country and more on the Shiite Muslim militias suspected of maintaining close ties to Iran.

So the one airport style checkpoint is so that they can say "we're only trying to stop bad stuff coming in" -- while the Iranians will now be contemplating what exactly an American military base is doing 4 miles from their border.

Today's most important flight status check

Departure Date : 09-Sep-2007
FLIGHT NUMBER : PK-786
London, UK:Islamabad, Pakistan STATUS :IN-FLIGHT
Actual Time of Departure :2117 Estimated Time of Arrival :0857

Explanation here.

We've nothing useful to say about the Osama video

Image property of CBS/Paramount

From the bizarre transcript:

Whoever wishes to find that out for himself must listen to the verse of this magnificent chapter: one of the just kings of the Christians - the Negus - listened to some of its verses and his eyes welled up with tears and he said something which should be reflected on for a long time by those sincere in their search for the truth.

"He said, "verily, this and what Jesus brought come from one lantern": i.e., that the magnificent Koran and the Evangel are both from Allah, the Most High; and every just and intelligent one of you who reflects on the Koran will definitely arrive at this truth.

Building that rugby fan base in the US

Announcement from the USA rugby team --

Setanta Sports North America will be the exclusive LIVE online broadcaster of the 2007 iRB Rugby World Cup, made available via Setanta’s innovative broadband service. To witness every play, rugby fans can pre-order Setanta broadband’s “Tournament Ticket” for just $119.99 at www.setanta.com.

... Setanta Sports’ will also air delayed televised RWC matches, previews and tournament highlights via DIRECTV, Dish Network, itvn and Globecast World TV, with some restrictions.

VERSUS will be the exclusive national cable broadcaster of the 2007 Rugby World Cup Sept. 9 – Oct. 21 and will air 11 marquee matches, including all four of the USA matches, the Quarterfinals, Semi-finals and Finals. All matches will be shown on tape delay, commencing on Sept. 9 with the Argentina vs. France match, two days after the event happens live.

You'd think that that after the flop of the cricket world cup, which similarly restricted its audience, someone might learn. Adding Irish gougers Setanta to the equation only adds to the irritation.

War be damned

Image courtesy of APEC 2007 Taskforce

Condi has a new dress to show off. It'll take better fashion experts than us to deconstruct that apparent Ace of Clubs pattern on it.

Just when we thought we were doing too much APEC blogging

A real diplomatic disaster occurs. This one speaks for itself. What's supposed to be a bland press availability after a meeting where George Bush is just reading from whatever his handlers wrote for him. This one with South Korean president Roh. The context is that there is still no peace treaty from the Korean War -- one which George Bush now holds up as an example of the possible good outcomes from Iraq.

Bush first stated his position that there can be no treaty until North Korea gets rid of nuclear weapons, which is a higher hurdle than the unificationist South Koreans want, but then tried to be a little too blandly upbeat:

And so I'm optimistic. There's still more work to be done. But nevertheless, Mr. President, when we have worked together we have shown that it's possible to achieve the peace on the Korean Peninsula that the people long for.

Note in particular the tense. President Roh clearly did (go to 8m mark on video) --

I think I might be wrong -- I think I did not hear President Bush mention the -- a declaration to end the Korean War just now. Did you say so, President Bush?

PRESIDENT BUSH: I said it's up to Kim Jong-il as to whether or not we're able to sign a peace treaty to end the Korean War. He's got to get rid of his weapons in a verifiable fashion. And we're making progress toward that goal. It's up to him.

PRESIDENT ROH: I believe that they are the same thing, Mr. President. If you could be a little bit clearer in your message, I think --

PRESIDENT BUSH: I can't make it any more clear, Mr. President. We look forward to the day when we can end the Korean War. That will end -- will happen when Kim Jong-il verifiably gets rid of his weapons programs and his weapons.

Bush's boosters like to think that his botched English is the only thing between him and Churchill. But there's a real cost to lack of clarity in a complex world.

That might be a threat

REUTERS/RIA Novosti/KREMLIN; caption

The ever sly Vladimir Putin, attending the APEC summit, manages to needle George Bush without even trying --

PRESIDENT BUSH: Vladimir, thanks. For a minute, I thought he brought up the Kennebunkport visit to remind me that he was the only one who caught the fish.

and later issues this cryptic invitation --

PRESIDENT PUTIN: (As translated.) And we also agreed that we will enjoy fishing not only in the United States but somewhere in Siberia very soon.

At the very least, he may be challenging Bush to go topless.

It's about oil, even when it's not

From the AP report on Bush's Friday morning speech to Asia-Pacific business leaders in Sydney --

Bush was about 15 minutes late starting his speech, as aides hustled audience members down from the balcony to fill the many empty seats below. He started his remarks with a gaffe. In Sydney to attend the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, a 21-nation group of Pacific Rim countries whose economies account for nearly half of all global trade, Bush first referred to the group as OPEC, the cartel of major oil producers. The audience remained quiet through his speech.

UPDATE: Bush's witty introduction was --

PRESIDENT BUSH: Good morning -- or should I say g'day. (Laughter.) Mr. Prime Minister, thank you for your introduction. Thank you for being such a fine host for the OPEC summit. I appreciate -- APEC summit. (Laughter.)

Bet they've never heard the g'day thing before.

The official White House pictures give no sense of the apparently sparse crowd, although John Howard's panicked summoning of the entourage perhaps reveals the problem.


FINAL UPDATE: scout prime has more, including Bush's confusion of Australia and Austria.

The Free Market Insurgency

Charles P. Ries is the US Coordinator for Economic Transition in Iraq. There was a news conference earlier this week in Baghdad with him and White House operative Kevin Bergner, Multi-National Force-Iran spokesman (position forthcoming). Here's one part of the discussion, attributed to Ries --

The Iraqi government will make the final decision on privatizing electrical services, but in Baghdad many citizens currently receive their power from private generators on a cost sharing basis.

Good news from Iraq: the public electricity network is trashed, so everyone has to buy power from local private generators, meaning that a privatized supply is already up and running. Did the terrorists know what a boost they would give to privatization when they carried out their dastardly acts?

Straight to the 19th

Condi Rice likes golf. But showing how high the impact of the Howard-Bush lockdown in Sydney reaches --

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer had challenged US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to a game at Sydney's Rose Bay Golf Club on Saturday but, with Australia's largest city under the biggest security clampdown in the country's history, golf had to give way, Downer admitted afterwards.

Partner Inconsistency

If Apple is planning on offering free WiFi access to iTunes from any Starbucks coffee shop, it's a tad odd that this is in the context of Starbucks offering WiFi through T-Mobile, whereas for the iPhone, Apple's partner is the much criticised choice of AT&T. So, it would seem, one's iPhone will be using the AT&T network for all functions except when you're in Starbucks when it will be using T-Mobile for iTunes. Or is another technical shoe yet to drop?

The September rollout

There's been a notable escalation in the rhetoric of what are usually fairly descriptive press releases from Multinational Forces Iraq. Here's one announcing the capture of yet another supposed link to Iran -- identity and nationality unspecified:

The detained individual is suspected of coordinating with high-level IRGC-QF officers for the transportation of multiple Iraqis to Iran for terrorist training at IRGC-QF training camps. He is also a known logistics facilitator providing lethal aid to terrorists operating in central Baghdad. It is likely that the affiliate is closely linked to individuals at the highest levels of the IRGC-QF. Coalition forces are still assessing his possible connection to the Special Groups.

Intelligence derived from other security detainees led Coalition forces to the residence of the individual. Ground troops confiscated computer equipment, communication devices, miscellaneous documents and photographs. It is believed that the captured documents may lead to information on other IRGC-QF illicit activities intended to disrupt security operations in Iraq ...

“As Iran continues its proxy war against the people of Iraq, Coalition forces will continue to build on recent operations to disrupt the flow of illicit, lethal materials from Iran into Iraq,” said Lt. Col. Christopher Garver, MNF-I spokeman

If one was looking for the groundwork for a declaration of war against Iran, it's not hard to find.

The other Shannon issue

With no flights to Heathrow, US military stopovers en route to and from Iraq will be even more important business. An interesting contrast is with New Zealand, whose policy of non-involvement with the war extends to barring Air New Zealand from carrying Australian troops to Kuwait. Now that concerns the use of an airline rather than an airport. But it's a government facility in both cases. The "UN mandate" excuse thus cuts no ice with Helen Clark's government. It would be nice if at some point either of the Aherns were asked to explain the contrast.

Fakest street walk ever

White House photo by Eric Draper; caption

Forget about his visit to "Iraq" -- the Camp Cupcake airbase with the 13 mile exclusion zone. Note that the only way George Bush takes a "walk" in Sydney is with massive fencing each side, surrounded by suits, and not a real person within sight. There was also his time in the harbor, again with huge security in tow. And who exactly takes a boat ride in a suit?

Someone slipped up

Of course George Bush can make an unforced speaking error. But what prompted this botched bonhomie with John Howard? --

PRESIDENT BUSH: Mr. Prime Minister, thanks for your hospitality. You've been telling me how beautiful Sydney is. I now agree. Laura sends her very best to you and Janette, and we congratulate you on -- like your grandfatherhood. (Laughter.)

Because only salacious minds would think that the awkwardness resulted from him stopping himself saying "we congratulate you on -- like us -- your grandfatherhood." With Jenna's recent engagement and all.

UPDATE: Holden thinks it's standard issue Bush dude talk.

The editing at Number 10

While it's not clear how much mileage Private Eye will get out of their Stalin model for Gordon Brown's approach to governing (an analogy that was popularised here), there's a strange bit of editing in the transcript of his news conference yesterday --

QUESTION (possibly from Gary O'Donoghue)
Again on that speech yesterday you said that you wanted to break the old sterile Party divides. (Party Political Content)

PRIME MINISTER
Yes, that we work together where we can and as we have done...

The question, which occurred about 10m40s into the video, and which is needed to make the sense of the answer, was --

Can you think of anything positive to say about David Cameron and the Conservative Party?

The China summit

AP Photo/Rob Griffith; caption

An intriguing caption on this photo --

George W. Bush, center, is greeted by an unidentified Australian official upon his arrival at the Sydney airport ..

Knowing Commonwealth protocol, one thinks: shouldn't that be the Governor-General at the bottom of the stairs? Heading over to the diligently updated Governor-General's website, we see --

On Tuesday, 4 September 2007, at Defence Establishment Fairbairn, ACT, Their Excellencies the Governor-General Major General Michael Jeffery AC CVO MC and Mrs Marlena Jeffery attended the Ceremonial Arrival of the President of the People's Republic of China, His Excellency Hu Jintao

And in the last paragraph of a long court circular-type news release --

Later, the Governor-General was represented at Sydney International Airport at the arrival in Australia of the President of the United States of America, the Honourable George W. Bush, by Colonel Bill Monfries, an Honorary Aide-de-Camp.

As certain bloggers like to say, Ouch!

UPDATE: The White House has posted an official photo.

FINAL UPDATE: Despite, or maybe because of, the absence of any top dogs at the arrival ceremony, Bush went into slang mode: "We're kicking ass."

ONE MORE: The Financial Times shows that the symbolism was real -- Bush was left in the shade by Hu throughout the week.

I heartily endorse this event or product

A couple of days ago we noted George Bush's "Wha' Happened?" explanation of how the Saddam-era Iraqi army was disbanded. The story seemed to have passed under the radar screen but now Tuesday's New York Times brings news that Paul Bremer, head of the Coalition Provisional Authority, Timberland boots model, and Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient, had steam coming out his ears upon reading that, since his name appeared on the edict disbanding the army.

Hence his production of letters between him and Bush about the decision, letters which incidentally are also revealing of Bush's obsession with gratitude from others, a trait on display in New Orleans last week as well. Anyway, here, as far as Bremer is concerned, is The Decider's approval of his decision to disband the army --

“Your leadership is apparent,” the president wrote. “You have quickly made a positive and significant impact. You have my full support and confidence.”

Which could be just the form letter that he also wrote to whoever he nominated to be head of the federal dog-catching team, if there is such a thing. The issue just becomes, regarding the making of key decisions in Iraq: is it that Bush didn't know, or didn't care?

The Cyprus analogy

Counterinsurgency expert David Kilcullen has risen to prominence in the current tussle over the effectiveness of the surge in Iraq. In fact it's unusual given the current friction between the US and UK over Iraq policy that he's cited approvingly by both of them. The migration of the term "overwatch" into the description of what the British troops will do from Basra airport seems due to him.

Anyway, he has a blog post at the interestingly named Small Wars Journal about the revolt of Iraqi tribes against al Qaeda in Iraq. All signs are that this will be one of the few pieces of good news to be cited when the surge is assessed, notwithstanding its very dangerous potential for trouble down the road.

Here's one segment of Kilcullen's case --

It has become a truism to argue that we have too few troops in Iraq for “proper” counterinsurgency. This claim is somewhat questionable, ... as Robert Thompson pointed out more than 40 years ago, force ratio in counterinsurgency is an indicator of progress, not a prerequisite for it. You know things are starting to go your way when local people start joining your side against the enemy, thus indicating a growth of popular support, and changing the force ratio as a result.

Merely adding additional foreign troops doesn’t make up for lack of local popular support – the British lost the Cyprus campaign with a force ratio of 110 to 1 in their favor, while in the same decade the Indonesians defeated Dar'ul Islam with a force ratio that never exceeded 3 to 1, by building partnerships with communities and employing them as village neighborhood watch groups, in cordon tasks and support functions.

This argument seems set to find its way into White House talking points, especially in answer to the question: if the consequences of "losing" in Iraq are so catastrophic, why not send even more troops? Because, they'll say, we're doing modern counterinsurgency and sending more troops doesn't do any good.

Leave aside the fact they'll need more troops just to replicate al-Anbar in more places. Leave aside the fact that there are no more troops. Did the British "lose" in Cyprus? The insurgency began in 1954 with Cyprus as a British colony. It's not like the British thought that they could keep it as a colony for ever. King George III may have taken some time to adjust to his 13 colonies departing, but by the mid 1950s the template was clear.

Instead the British were fighting against Cypriot union with Greece and for retention of their military facilities. In terms of those goals, they "won" -- or at least didn't lose. And achieving that goal required, yes, more troops. There are similar possible specifications of US goals in Iraq -- preventing bits of it de facto seceding to Iran and keeping military bases, that may require similar resources. Mobilizing local allies is not a free lunch.

UPDATE: Kilcullen is now officially cool amongst the punditocracy -- he's been cited by David Brooks ($).

One kind of Irish

Seen around Washington DC: anti Jurys hotel bumper stickers. There's a Jurys in Dupont Circle. The bumper sticker includes a link to this website. The specific complaints seem to have more to do with industrial relations than the nationality or the authenticity of the owners. If anything, the problem with the ownership structure as outlined by the website is that it's all too Irish.

You could tell a very concise story of Irish politics going from Sean Lemass and Cement Roadstone Holdings (CRH) to the row between the Roches and CRH, Charlie Haughey (the son-in-law of Lemass) and Fianna Fail's continued ties to CRH (not least their accountant), and the very sweet deal that the Roche company (National Toll Roads) got on the west link bridge (which is referred to on the website). And the obsession of the current government with tolled motorways. That's a real Ireland, just not the one that people expect.

Not safe enough to stop lying

The Wall Street Journal on Friday --

[Congressman Rahm] Emanuel predicts president will make surprise Iraq stop to receive Petraeus report, but White House reports no such plans.

As usual, everything the White House says has to be parsed indefinitely. Bush's surprise visit is not, strictly speaking, to receive the report. It's to promote the soft partition of Iraq.

The other end is John Howard

Reuters/Mick Tsikas; caption

So after all the draconian provisions to keep out illegal immigrants, and the spending of fearsome amounts of money to keep a huge cordon in Sydney around George W. Bush, it turns out that Australian PM John Howard's government couldn't run an animal quarantine system properly -- living on an island. The result being a devastating equine flu. Australian voters will have a change to deal with the incompetence virus in a few months. Americans will have to wait somewhat longer.

Adverse selection

Another quote from George Bush to Robert Draper via the New York Times --

“I’ll give some speeches [after presidency], just to replenish the ol’ coffers.” With assets that have been estimated as high as nearly $21 million, Mr. Bush added, “I don’t know what my dad gets — it’s more than 50-75” thousand dollars a speech, and “Clinton’s making a lot of money.”

He thus indicates that earning a mere $400K a year, with zero work expenses, has depleted the "ol' coffers" -- and implicitly explains the likely view of both him and Cheney that they have sacrificed for their country by taking lower salaries than they could have earned in the private sector.

With performance related public sector salaries they would of course be bankrupt by now. It also points to a market failure, as in an ideal world we collectively would have found a way to pay Bush and Cheney enough to stay in the private sector -- and saved a lot of death and destruction.

Wha' happened?

In one of several astonishing quotes from George Bush given to the author of a chronicle of his years in office, he gives this account of the disastrous decision to disband the Iraqi army (via the New York Times) --

Mr. Bush acknowledged one major failing of the early occupation of Iraq when he said of disbanding the Saddam Hussein-era military, “The policy was to keep the army intact; didn’t happen.”

But when Mr. Draper pointed out that Mr. Bush’s former Iraq administrator, L. Paul Bremer III, had gone ahead and forced the army’s dissolution and then asked Mr. Bush how he reacted to that, Mr. Bush said, “Yeah, I can’t remember, I’m sure I said, ‘This is the policy, what happened?’ ” But, he added, “Again, Hadley’s got notes on all of this stuff,” referring to Stephen J. Hadley, his national security adviser.

The Decider thus mimics this guy [explained here].

Because I'm the only one here

AP Photo/Susan Walsh; caption

Perhaps reflecting both the effort and the reward from having outlasted the entire Texas mafia around his notional boss, Dick Cheney manages to look especially unhealthy and especially goonish in this photo. And watertiger notes from the next still in the sequence that there's something seriously up with his legs, or his tailor.

A star that never waxed

Here's a long New York Times profile of a supposedly "reflective" Condi Rice. Even while being somewhat critical it shows the extent to which the Washington foreign affairs press corps has pulled its punches on Rice. Not least because several of them are writing books about her and so need the access. One wades through the article and never sees her single biggest failure mentioned: 9/11. Her job was national security adviser. The person who "advises" the president on "national security", if you will.

So surely the first candidate to get fired if there's a catastrophic breakdown in national security. Which there was. It was Condi who called off Bill Clinton's targeting of Osama bin Laden in Spring 2001 on the ground that it wasn't part of a strategy. It was Condi who went to the Genoa summit that summer, the summit ringed with anti-aircraft missiles because the Italians thought that someone might use a plane as a weapon to attack the summit. And then claimed after 9/11 that no one could have conceived of a plane as a weapon. And it was Condi who spent that lazy August of 2001 on trips to Crawford and never got through to her boss that the system was buzzing with word of a threat.

Credit where it's due

On the other hand (see below), even a public relations shop run by Republican operatives has to make the occasional concession. Hence this statement from Multinational Forces Iraq reacting to events from several days ago but planted into the US Labor Day holiday news cycle --

The recent declaration by Muqtada al-Sadr calling on all members of Jaysh al-Mahdi to end their violence is encouraging. It is particularly notable that Sadr gave his word of honor that Jaysh al-Mahdi will stop attacks.

After all the fulminations that have been done for the last 4 years about al-Sadr, having to refer to his "word of honor" must have hurt.

While there's no doubt that al-Sadr's ceasefire will help, the strategic calculations behind it should worry the US and the UK. Because he can achieve several goals with a ceasefire: making things quiet enough in Basra for the British to fully withdraw, rearm and regroup to take on rogue Mahdi Army units, and in the meantime let the US deal with al Qaeda north and west of Baghdad. And then decide what to do with the Sunni insurgents that the US financed and equipped to help it in that struggle.

UPDATE 4 SEPTEMBER: The honor theme continues for al-Sadr from another MNF-I press release: commitment of honor ... it appears many honorable members of Jaysh al-Mahdi are fulfilling Sadr’s pledge of honor to stop attacks and reduce the violence ...

Namecheck

Not that there wasn't already proof that the US military operation in Iraq is infested with Republican operatives, but now there's an Operation Power Line. Those guys don't seem to have noticed, yet.