The Black Swan

Wolfgang Munchau in the FT:

The probability [of no deal] was at no point anywhere close to zero. It increased when Boris Johnson emerged as the winner of the Conservative leadership contest. But it never made sense to attach ultra-low probabilities to a legal default position.

Islam in the White House

The best moment of Donald Trump's chaotic media Q and A during the visit of Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan --

PRESIDENT TRUMP: [...] And we just came out, Mr. Prime Minister, with tremendous economic numbers for the United States — the best we’ve ever had. We’ve got the best economy we’ve ever had. And I think we can shift some of that over to Pakistan. We should be doing tremendous business together. So, I look forward to it. 

PRIME MINISTER KHAN: Inshallah.

As if something makes 2003 significant

From U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speech to Christians United for Israel:

In Iraq, Syria, and other countries in the region, the last remnants of ancient Christian communities are at near-extinction because of persecution from ISIS and other malign actors.  And just one example: before 2003, there were an estimated 1.5 million Christians living in Iraq.  Today, sadly, almost a quarter of a million.

Salute to America*

Among the various problems with the Trump 4 July address last night was that its version of American history ignored the country's indigenous population.  They appear only obliquely,  in references to an untamed continent and a wild frontier.