Timing the market

Gordon Brown, speaking to CBI Scotland --

But at its peak in 1999 the North Sea produced 2.9 million barrels a day. This year 1.5 million barrels a day - the largest reduction of any oil producing nation - making Britain a net importer of oil.

And five years ago oil was less than 40 dollars a barrel - in July it was 147 dollars a barrel and today 107.

He goes 5 years back when oil was $40/barrel -- but it was closer to $10/barrel at peak production. Hindsight is of course 20-20, but the oil should have been left under the sea in 1999.

Chart from US Energy Information Administration

The only military parent

Apparently one of Sarah Palin's campaign events next week will be to say goodbye to her son Track when he leaves for military duty in Iraq on September 11, 2008 (geddit?) having signed up on September 11, 2007 (geddit?) -- so said a Washington Post reporter on the Diane Rehm show this morning. The event would be at Fort Wainwright.

Surely there are rules about military facilities and events being used for campaign purposes? There were when Barack Obama was in Germany.

McCain speech thoughts

These idiots disrupting his speech are handing the Republicans a talking point.

The warm up video for his speech is a good case study in the problems with presidential systems. Can any one person be the giant that this crowd seems to believe he is?

Note the first states he mentions. Michigan, Pennsylvania. It's the same message as from Palin's speech.

A telling lack of applause for his criticism of corporate welfare for oil companies. Similarly for his (correct) statement that the hypothetical daughter of migrant workers is American. And there's the Vatican's phrase, culture of life.

A load of tax cut and spending promises. And a bigger federal role in education. No explanation of how he'll be getting involved in what are now local government decisions.

Georgia gets solidarity and prayers -- anything else?

"I hate war" -- but it sounds like it's going to involve some more war to get to peace.

Did he know that his stirring lines at the end were being drowned out by applause? [K-Lo agrees]

Conclusion: we might have forgotten how vigorous an intellectually deranged party can be.

Trig, the Down's baby is on stage again. No baby sitters in Minnesota?

No wonder they didn't want this thing too close to a hurricane. The post-speech song selection is all party music -- on a day when the Dow fell 350.

The market is efficient

According to the Larry Kudlow school of financial economics, the stock market should be through the roof today following the Greatest Speech Ever at the Republican convention. The Dow is down nearly 300 points.

Too much exaggeration even for Cheney

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Dick Cheney didn't have one aspect of their talking points straight in Tblisi today --

Mr. President, you've been fearless in response to the occupation of your territory, and steadfast in your principles. America respects you, and we respect the noble people of this country -- more than 100,000 of whom came out this week to demonstrate their support for Georgia's independence and sovereignty.

PRESIDENT SAAKASHVILI: Actually, 1.5 million.

VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY: 1.5 million. Well, it was more than 100,000.

(Laughter.) Good, 1.5 million.

One wonders where Cheney's team got their estimate from.

The battleground

View Larger Map
Sarah Palin's speech -- reflecting the heavy overwatch of Karl Rove -- made mention of very few specific US states. But it did mention most of the states that feature in the map. Clearly this is where the strategists expect the election to be won and lost. Forget all that stuff about one side chasing the other's sure things on the east coast or the plains. The action will be on a belt from the Appalachians and along the Great Lakes. Unfortunately for Rove, just as Obama impressed a crowd in Germany most of whom don't have the vote, Palin's hockey mom schtick was likely big in Ontario.

The Sarah Palin speech

An interesting exhibit. The Party of Lincoln reduced to 20,000 people chanting "Drill baby drill" and "Zero". She never once made a positive case for her own credentials as a vice presidential candidate, at least no case that wouldn't apply to any other mayor of a town of 10,000 people. She became noticeably detached from the speech -- segments of which were written for a generic candidate -- on the foreign policy and tax sections. She and Dick Cheney now have a weird bond since his sneering at energy conservation was matched by hers at community work, although she merely took the baton from Rudy Giuliani in that regard. The speech even had a good jab at George Bush, tracing the opposition of special interests to McCain back to his primary campaign in 2000 -- the one won by Bush.

Finally, the full family on stage at the end, teen fiancé included, and Trig (the Down's baby) shown to everyone. In that sense, the content of the speech was irrelevant. The 20,000 true believers wanted signs.

UPDATE: One other thing -- guess who must share George Bush's pronunciation nucular?

One way transparency

Dick Cheney in Azerbaijan --

America also appreciates Azerbaijan's commitment to working with Western countries on energy issues. All peoples are best served when market principles are allowed to work; when there is transparency of information; when energy export routes are diverse and reliable.

Dick Cheney has never voluntarily revealed which energy industry special interests wrote the report of his 2001 Energy Task Force.

A post that could disappear

National Review's Byron York spoke to Steve Schmidt "a senior strategist in the McCain campaign". The conversation included some Rove-style pushback from the strategist on why Governor Sarah Palin was trying to get her ex brother in law fired as a state trooper --

"The reason that members of the Palin family were having discussions with the head of the state police about this state trooper, who was her ex-brother-in-law, was because he had made threats against the family. He threatened to kill the governor's daughter, her father, and her sister. He tasered her 11-year-old stepson. And that is why the Palin family was concerned about this trooper."

Presumably they've had a lawyer look over those statements before going public with them.

Are they even trying any more?

The following Deep Thought from John McCain appears on his website as the context-setting quote for tonight's festivities at the Republican convention --

"Love of country, my friends, is another way of saying love of your fellow countrymen."

When is it not about oil?

George Bush sees one clear lesson of Gustav --

One thing is for certain: When Congress comes back, they've got to understand that we need more domestic energy, not less; that -- and one place to find it is offshore America, lands that have been taken off the books, so to speak, by congressional law. And now they need to give us a chance to find more oil and gas here at home. I'd much rather American consumers be buying gasoline produced from American oil than from foreign oil. I'd rather our dollar stay at home than go overseas.

And I know the Congress has been on recess for a while, but this issue hasn't gone away. And this storm should not cause the members of Congress to say, well, we don't need to address our energy independence; it ought to cause the Congress to step up their need to address our dependence on foreign oil.

Somehow, that's his number 1 priority after the storm. Incidentally, John McCain's non-pick for vice-presidential running mate, Lousiana governor Bobby Jindal, has asked for a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to relief refinery shortages in the Gulf. Bush's administration is still thinking about it.

Heh Indeed

Photo: REUTERS/Jason Reed

Be careful about what becomes an issue

Laura Bush this morning on ABC's Good Morning America --

Q You've had a chance to meet Governor Palin in the past.

MRS. BUSH: That's right.

Q Tell us what you know about her, and what you think she brings to the ticket.

MRS. BUSH: Well, I'm thrilled that she's on the ticket. I'm getting my wish -- I'm going to get to vote for a Republican woman for vice president this time, and I'm so excited about it.

...

And then, of course, she has the experience of raising five kids while she has had these jobs, and I think for a lot of people, a lot of women especially, we look at her and we admire her, the way she's lived her life. She comes from a state where people are strong, and a Western state, that state of Alaska, that produces really strong women, particularly. And I like her good, sound judgment and her good, common sense. I think that's what she brings to this ticket.

And on CNN --

Q So is that a suggestion that at some level she has more experience than Senator McCain?

MRS. BUSH: Well, I think she has a different experience. She's the mother of five kids. She's doing that while she's worked. She was pregnant when I was last with her at the National Governors Association and since had that baby. I just have a lot of admiration for her, and I think she brings a judgment and a common sense to this that is just terrific.

[context for the Bristol Palin situation here and here]

Elitist Hawaii and that other place

Above is the graphic header that appears on John McCain's website which has been modified to emphasize Hurricane Gustav relief. Note the thousand points of light, if you will, coming from the outline of the USA.

Which states are missing?

UPDATE: Here's the Alaska-less original should the campaign take notice and make it a 50 state depiction on the website.



FINAL UPDATE: Spelling seems to be a problem for McCain's website too --

Our Marines have done a superb job fighting alongside Iraqis to defeat Al Queda,

Listening to the men in uniform*

Perhaps getting less attention in all the Gustav and convention coverage is a long New York Times article about the origins of the surge of US troops into Iraq in early 2007. George Bush has frequently offered statements like this in explaining the surge --

Early last year, after consultations with our commanders -- and the Commander-in-Chief must always listen to the commanders and not the latest opinion poll -- (applause) -- I ordered a surge of forces into Iraq.

The NYT article shows that for all practical purposes, he's lying. First, alternatives to the "stay the course" strategy in 2006 were being considered precisely because of public opinion --

At a Nov. 22 White House meeting, top aides outlined an “emerging consensus” on the way ahead. There was wide agreement that a successful outcome in Iraq was vital for the Bush administration’s “war on terror” and a candid assessment of the difficulties.

A document prepared for the review stated: “Our center of gravity — public support — is in jeopardy because of doubts that our Iraq efforts are on a trajectory leading to success.”

Second, in all the internal debate, the constituency most opposed was the Pentagon. The idea originated from the National Security Council and had elements of what the State Department wanted to do, but owed its momentum even more strongly to the support of the American Enterprise Institute and Dick Cheney's office. Those men in uniform wear the standard Washington uniform: the suit.

Happy in their own way

Here's Sarah Palin and her 4 daughters at the Philadelphia Zoo last month. Her baby daughter Trig is in the sling. Does this look like a family that has decided to fake Mrs Palin as the mother of her granddaughter, 16-year old Bristol's daughter?

He can multi-task

The eagerness of the White House to show that Gustav is not Katrina extends to showing us George Bush using what looks like a pretty clunky phone to call the governors of Gulf states to assure them he's on top of it. Note the flaunting of a big red CLASSIFIED folder (or perhaps unclassified). Hopefully none of those important papers fell out.

UPDATE: Paul Krugman ponders the significance of the folder.

Remember, he's one of the "smart" ones

National Review's Ramesh Ponnuru, going into Huckabee territory on pro-Palin talking points --

According to the Latest Census Figures [Ramesh Ponnuru]

Wassila turns out to have more people than Delaware—and it has been growing fast. (I can't get the links to work right now but it's easy to look up.)

It is easy to look up. Wasilla, spell it right, The 2007 population estimate for Wasilla city, Alaska is 9,780. The 2007 population estimate for Delaware is 864,764.

How could you have any sense of what the US looks like and get such basic things wrong?

UPDATE: He corrected the post.

Short handed on the home front

One wonders if John McCain is capable of absorbing the sheer stupidity of his pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate. In his entire lifetime of experience, of which he rarely fails to remind people, the person he thinks most qualified to act in his stead wasn't even in her current job when he began his campaign.

Anyway, one of the overlooked people was Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal. Assuming the Republicans actually go ahead with their Minneapolis convention next week, the TVs will be showing many images of Hurricane Gustav hitting Louisiana (if it stays on its current track) and Jindal managing to look "presidential" -- which won't be a high bar given the atrocious standard of 2005. While conservatives hail their mooseburger-eating vice presidential pick.

Anyway, Jindal is already busy --

As 1,500 National Guard members arrived in New Orleans yesterday to support the city’s police department and assist in executing civil support missions, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal announced the activation of all available remaining Louisiana National Guard forces to assist with emergency operations in preparation for Hurricane Gustav.

With the newly activated troops coming on board today, the total of Louisiana Guard members activated reaches 7,000.

The full strength of the Louisiana national guard seems to be 11,000. So where are the other 4,000? Need you ask. Other guards are trying to help --

Headquarters 1-114th Aviation Battalion of North Little Rock, Ark., is sending 44 personnel to Esler Field in Pineville, La., to fill in for Louisiana’s 1-244th Assault Helicopter Battalion of the 204th Theater Airfield Operations Group, currently deployed in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Maybe the commander-in-chief of the Alaska National Guard will be able to look presidential by offering to send forces.

She's run the biggest land mass state in the country

Mike Huckabee, (go to about 1 minute left in this Hannity and Colmes segment), with his case for Sarah Palin as the person best qualified to get the keys to the country from John McCain.

All welcome the latest colour revolution

It's the yellow revolution in Thailand. Strangely, it has yet to attract the interest of the White House and the neocon marketing machine despite the wild success of earlier colour revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine, Lebanon etc.

Photo:AP/Vincent Yu

Exclusive picture of Sarah Palin

Here.

Also interesting that the supposed national security ticket will have someone who says "Eye-ran" for Iran.

UPDATE: Victor Davis Hanson embraces the Marge Gunderson comparison.

Dissonance

One thought on Sarah Palin on the McCain ticket -- how exactly will she be running as a reformer of Alaskan politics with an indicted and unrepentant Senator Ted Stevens on the same ballot in November?

The common element

Mysterious "Senior Administration Official" briefing the press about Dick Cheney's visit to the Caucasus and Italy next week --

The centerpiece of the visit to Baku on Wednesday will be a meeting and dinner with President Aliyev and his team. As I indicated earlier, the Vice President has known President Aliyev for quite some time. And he met the current President Aliyev when he was, again, I think, Azerbaijan's Minister of Oil.

The current President Aliyev has had quite an interesting career and one wonders how much of it Dick Cheney was around for, especially back in his Halliburton days. But anyway, the unnamed official wanted to encourage us all --

SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Again, let me tell you, the Vice President of the United States, Dick Cheney, showing up in places he hasn't been before I think is a reassuring step.

Be very afraid.

It's also near the Pentagon

National Review's Kathleen Parker with the lamest defence of John "7 pads" McCain --

I've never seen McCain's Washington digs, but I know he has an apartment at Pentagon City (PC). If you're not familiar with DC geography, that may sound uptown. It's not. "Uptown" is Georgetown, where people like Teresa Kerry and Hillary Clinton own very expensive homes. PC is a modern and uncharming commuter hub of high-rise apartment buildings conveniently located next to mega-stores such as Pier I, Best Buy, Harris Teeter — as well as Reagan International Airport.

Here's a description of the Pentagon City Mall. Parker only mentions the big box Shops at Pentagon City which is next to it. There is also a Ritz Carlton where few Americans who might like to have a beer with McCain would normally stay at. But it is the famous Ritz Carlton where Linda Tripp met Monica Lewinsky, and thus launched Jonah Goldberg's career in "journalism".

By the way, the airport's name is Reagan National Airport, .

Terrorists just want to have fun

Multi-National Forces Iraq press release --

BAGHDAD – Coalition forces captured a suspected senior Special Groups leader Wednesday morning during an operation at Baghdad International Airport.

Intelligence sources report that the captured man is part of the most senior social and operational circles of Special Groups.

Who knew that the ultra-evil Special Groups had social circles. But there you go. The press release goes on to explain that the person was the planner of a brazen attack on a meeting in June that killed 2 State Department officials as well as 2 US soldiers and 6 Iraqis. The apparent security breach at that meeting coupled with the suspect's ability to come and go from Iraq as he pleased suggests that the Iraqi security forces are still infiltrated at a high level -- 2 years after the Surge began.

UPDATE: Unbelievable. The arrested official is Ali al-Lami, head of the de-Baathification screening commission.

A place where conservatives are stupid

National Review's Jay Nordlinger

One thing I’ve noticed about this [Democratic] convention — it’s impossible not to — is that America is portrayed as a deeply suffering place ...

By the way, you know the story about the man from Calcutta, decades ago, whose greatest desire was to visit America? "Why?" asked his friends. "Because I want to see a place where poor people are fat."

Using The Google quickly reveals this to be a hoary old chestnut, but here's the most concrete recent source: Dinesh D’Souza, also in National Review, before he had a big falling out with his conservative friends over his even more conservative views --

They arrived at the same perception that I witnessed in an acquaintance of mine from Bombay who has been unsuccessfully trying to move to the United States. I asked him, "Why are you so eager to come to America?" He replied, "I really want to live in a country where the poor people are fat."

Notice how the tale has gone from some random person in Calcutta to an actual friend of one particular National Reviewer. This has urban myth written all over it. The quote, that is. As for the claim that poor people are fat, there are many ways to go with that one. Such as by taking it at face value and noting what it says about the price-quality relationship for food and the state of America's healthcare system.

It also has a helicopter pad

The home under construction for JP McManus, the man whose finances the Irish media always seem to struggle with --

The size of the lake for which planning permission has been approved is 5,500sq m, which is just under 1.25 acres ... The house is still under construction but is expected to be completed before the end of the year. The 40,000sq ft property has nine bedrooms and features a 200-seat cinema, gym with 18-metre pool, sauna, steam room and hot tubs, a vast wine cellar and a “panic room”.

The house, which resembles the stately homes built in the 17th and 18th centuries, is about 27 times the size of an average modern home.

That's quite a comprehensive living space for someone who for tax purposes, does not live in Ireland. He even bought out the local GAA club's original site, which had a prime view of the property. Again a strange concern for someone who apparently can only be there less than half the days of the year. Perhaps the locals will help the Revenue keep track of the number of daily sightings.

Yes, it's low hanging fruit

But this ridiculous. National Review's The Corner has given a blogging slot to Pete Hegseth from the group Veterans for Bush --

For the first time in 44 years, the Democratic ticket for President will not include a veteran of America's Armed Services. Neither Senator Obama nor Senator Biden have spent one day in military uniform.

And by my calculations, it's been 76 years (Hoover-Curtis ticket in 1932) since the Republicans nominated a duo without any military experience.

That involves counting George Bush's highly convenient time in the Air National Guard protecting the Gulf of Mexico -- when the USA was at war in Vietnam -- as military service. And of course it requires ignoring Dick Cheney's 5 deferments from Vietnam.

But if you're in a front group for Republican operatives, as Hegseth is, that's the kind of thinking that gets you ahead.

Another day in US diplomacy

Leading neocon Zalmay Khalilzad has been running back-channel diplomacy in support of the former Mr Ten Percent and Bhutto widower Asif Ali Zardari to be president of Pakistan. In the meantime, Zardari's own legal depositions show that he may be mentally unstable.

And a day after George Bush calls on the Kremlin not to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the Kremlin just does that.

Has anyone seen those "grown-ups" that were promised in 2000?