Snippets from the UK 30 year paper release

There really was a time when telecommunications could be a problem:

Memo from Number 10 (Clive Whitmore) to the Foreign Office (Brian Fall) 2 July 1981 begins: Dr. Garret Fitzgerald, the new Taoiseach, telephoned the Prime Minister at 1800 yesterday evening. The line over which the conversation took place was particularly bad, and I am afraid that there are periods when Dr. Fitzgerald was inaudible, but I think that have pieced together the essentials of what we had to say.

A United States of Ireland?
Memo from RL Wade-Gery to Sir Robert Armstrong about meetings of the Anglo-Irish Joint Studies Groups 12 March 1981: There were two occasions on which the Irish had to be firmly slapped down, but these were clearly try-ons, and their failure was accepted with good grade and without protest. The first occurred early. The Irish explained frankly that their eventual objective was a Federal Ireland, achieved on the basis of majority consent both in the Republic and in the North.

This was when Charlie Haughey was Taoiseach but the federal idea at the time only existed in a Fine Gael document. As another section of the papers notes, Fianna Fail at the time had no actual policy paper setting out their views on Northern Ireland. Was it widely known at the time that Charlie had told his senior staff that the ultimate goal was federation?

[The relevant papers are here; file size is huge]

That could be anybody's keyboard

AFP:

A political row festered in Iraq on Friday, as a top Sunni leader denied he penned a commentary criticising the Shiite-led government, the latest in a crisis that has stoked sectarian tensions.


Since the departure of US troops less than two weeks ago, Iraq has plummeted into a political standoff, with authorities having charged Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi with running a death squad and premier Nuri al-Maliki calling for his Sunni deputy Saleh al-Mutlak to be sacked.


Mutlak and Hashemi's Sunni-backed Iraqiya party has boycotted parliament and cabinet, and on Wednesday, the New York Times ran a piece by three Iraqiya leaders -- Finance Minister Rafa al-Essawi, parliament speaker Osama al-Nujaifi and Iraqiya leader Iyad Allawi -- sharply critical of Maliki's administration.


Nujaifi, however, has since said his name was added to the piece without his knowledge.
"The article published in the New York Times... has been written without the knowledge of speaker Nujaifi," said a statement issued by his office late on Thursday.

Already on the rollercoaster

Wall Street Journal editorial on the public-private pay differential in Europe, drawing on an ECB paper also discussed on the Irish Economy blog --

Despite all this, the public-private wage gap in Europe wasn't always so large, and really began to widen after 1999. That has at least something to do with the introduction of the euro, which allowed employees to compare their pay with peers in other countries. One result was that government workers in particular were able to negotiate better contracts. 

It's an interesting point, but the big wave of Irish public sector pay increases didn't spring from comparisons with other European countries. It sprang from alleged comparisons within Ireland. And these comparisons, post-1999, themselves reflected the damaging effect of the convergence of interest rates due to the Euro: house prices were increasing rapidly, leaving public sector workers feeling priced out, and the anecdotal accounts of big money being made in real estate and banking -- in an easily dazzled media -- were growing. Add to that the relative power of public sector unions in Ireland, and you have a story. The epigraph could come from comparing the resulting pay scales with those in other Eurozone countries.

The other Bring 'em on

Andrew Roberts in the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal praising David Cameron's decision to have the UK step outside the negotiations for the Eurozone's fiscal compact --

King George VI actually rejoiced after the fall of France, writing in his diary 1940: "Personally, I feel happier that we have no allies to be polite to and pamper." That is the true voice of Britons, and one that David Cameron has articulated superbly.

Er, was 1940 a good time to be optimistic?

Arab Spring takes turn for the worse

Kuwait News Agency:

Minister of Public Works and Minister of State for Municipal Affairs Dr. Fadhil Safar stressd here on Monday the need to take the necessary requirements and regulations to prohibit smoking and the hubbly bubbly, known as "shisha," in public places, restaurants and cafes.

This is likely to provoke much greater outrage than another statement from the government via Kuwait News Agency today:


Interior Ministry announced on Monday that it has asked the Ministry of Communications to suspend all anonymous accounts on the social networking site (Twitter). The ministry said in a press statement that such measure comes in order to preserve the rights of citizens and residents of people who were used to slander them and their families under fake names, saying that such is a crime punishable by law. It confirmed that all public have the freedom of expression guaranteed to them by the Constitution as long as those practices are going according to the law, especially with regard to using the (Twitter) site.

Occupation dead-enders

Wall Street Journal editorial, July 9, 2008:

A year ago, the conventional Beltway wisdom had it that Iraq was a failed state. Today, the same wisdom holds that it is less chaotic but still fragile, dependent entirely on a U.S. presence to survive. But judging by recent comments from Nouri al-Maliki, even this view may be out of date.

Wall Street Journal editorial on the political and sectarian chaos in Iraq, December 23, 2011:

Inevitably we'll hear this is all the fault of the Bush Administration and the original sin of invasion. Some facts are inconvenient. In the last four years, Iraq put together a workable if imperfect political process. Major violence ceased and a 600,000-man military was formed. Oil revenues are flowing. What changed? The U.S. decided to leave.

Incidentally, the former Wall Street Journal editorial was arguing against Barack Obama's proposal as a candidate for a US withdrawal from Iraq in 2009 and in favour of an agreement-based withdrawal with a few extra years after 2008 to assure stability: the exact approach that President Obama implemented.

And she's such a phoney baloney

Meryl Streep gets the big parts for insights like this that she recalls from 1979 for a New York Times article about Iron Lady:

Ms. Streep nodded and said: “I did the same thing. We all thought if it can happen in England, class bound, socially rigid, homophobic — if they can elect a female leader  over there, then it’s just seconds away in America.”

Futile boosting to the end

Wall Street Journal editorial 16 December --

Iraq may be the country most Americans would prefer to forget, even if its remarkable quiescence during this season of Arab revolt is a testament to how much the U.S. achieved there. Yet U.S. interests in consolidating an alliance with Iraq have never been greater.

There wasn't much "quiescence" even in the months prior to that sentence, and there certainly isn't now.

He also thought he was near the end of a war

Republicans express outrage that conservative politicians with presidential aspirations compare themselves to historical figures:

Mr. Gingrich was “a disaster” as speaker and most likely would be as a nominee, Mr. King said, given his “compulsion to exaggerate,” erratically changing ideas, intellectual arrogance and the grandiosity of his self-comparisons to the likes of Winston Churchill and others.

Above, George W. Bush using careful White House advance team staging to compare himself to Churchill and FDR, during an event in Halifax, Nova Scotia, in 2004.

Photo: Larry Downing, Reuters

Nothing to do with me, sorry

Goldman Sachs. The Cayman Islands.  A complex structured investment vehicle.  The Irish Stock Exchange.  What could possibly go wrong?

The Financial Times (subs. req'd) explains, the gist being the attempt to market the thing with all the above features while still having it as an Islamic security:

Lawyers who structure products to comply with Islamic law warn that, whatever the merits to the scholarly debate, investors may be deterred by the doubts. “Goldman can list this programme on the Irish Stock Exchange, but that does not mean they will get the buyers,” said one lawyer who specialises in the field. “They may well find there is not much demand because of the widespread doubts over the issue in the market.” ... He added that Goldman would make use of the commodities and was not just flipping them to the original seller to create the illusion of a sale. And he said that the listing on the Irish Stock Exchange was for regulatory and tax purposes – scholars and potential investors did not anticipate a secondary market.

More than he meant to say

David Cameron this morning: "Britain is out of it and will remain out of it."

He was referring to the Euro but it serves rather unfortunately as a description of Britain's current position in the overall restructuring of the European Union that is now happening.

Incidentally, his remarks about the new deal surrendering more sovereignty and/or being outside the framework of the EU are not doing the Irish government any favours in terms of its own legal rationale for how to ratify the agreement.

Birds of a feather

David Brooks in his New York Times column

In the two main Republican contenders, we have one man, Romney, who seems to have walked straight out of the 1950s, and another, Gingrich, who seems to have walked straight out of the 1960s. He has every negative character trait that conservatives associate with ’60s excess: narcissism, self-righteousness, self-indulgence and intemperance. He just has those traits in Republican form.

What has the last 30 years of Republican dominated politics in the US been about if not narcissism, self-righteousness, self-indulgence, and intemperance?  That's the simplest explanation for why free tax cuts, free wars are so central to the project.

The official computer of the Eurozone debacle

Iveta Radicova, the Slovak Prime Minister, entering the Brussels summit this evening with a fancy Apple.  The Portuguese PM was also clutching one on the way in.  The others stick with the large piles of paper. It makes them look busier.

The Eurozone's loose change

IMF website 5 December 2011.  Loan disbursements to African countries on the order of 1/1000 of what Greece is getting.

Of course the Eurozone is a big crisis, not least if you're in the middle of it.

But is this the right attention ranking relative to where the really poor people actually are?

When calendars collide

Statement from official news agency of United Arab Emirates --

WAM Abu Dhabi, Dec 04th, 2011 (WAM) -- The Fatwa and Legislation Section of the Department of Judiciary- Abu Dhabi, announced that the first day of Muharram falls on Sunday November 27.

A statement issued by the Fatwa and Legislation Department, said that after a meeting of the three committees in charge of moon sighting, on Friday evening, November 25, the crescent was not sighted by any of the committees within the state.

Therefore, Saturday (Nov. 26) was the last day of Dhul Hijjah, and Sunday is the first of Muharram. Hence, the 10th of Muharram corresponds with Tuesday (Dec. 6).

This matters for dating the Ashura festival.  

That means that today, Sunday 4 December, is 8 Muharram.  In Saudi Arabia, today is 9 Muharram.

You'll never beat the Irish*

* Offer not applicable during June 2012.

Morally bankrupt as well

Associated Press report --

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said that Greece, which relies on Iranian oil, had objected to a ban on buying it. But he said work toward an embargo would continue.  "Greece has put forward a number of reservations," Juppe said. "We have to take that into account. We have to see with our partners that the cuts can be compensated by the increase of production in other countries. It is very possible."

This is Iran we're talking about, which was suppressing pro-democracy movements with violence before it was cool, and now is backstopping the Assad regime in Syria as it kills children for fun.  And Greece is complaining about oil sourcing?

Be afraid

Good news from the European Central Bank!

This action will enable the Eurosystem to provide euro to those central banks when required, as well as enabling the Eurosystem to provide liquidity operations, should they be needed, in Japanese yen, sterling, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in US dollars).

So the ECB is making plans to be able to provide large amounts of other currencies from within the Eurozone system of central banks.  Why might they need to be able to do that?

Be very afraid.

Maybe mineral water is counterrevolutionary

Amid what the media are still describing as an invasion of the UK Embassy in Tehran by "students", a cleric chants slogans while a goon puzzles over a bottle of Italian mineral water; the original photo caption suggests that he may have suspected it contained alcohol, which would be a strange way to store booze inside an embassy, although stranger things have happened.

More seriously, it's a bit strange that the "students" singled out the UK for enhanced protests given that lots of countries have sanctions against Iran; apparently additional sanctions by the UK against the Iranian Central Bank were the trigger.  They must treasure their ability to conduct monetary policy.  Yet these same "radical" students don't seem at all worked up about the atrocities of their client state, Syria.  In short, we have a carefully channeled "spontaneous" protest against an easy target of the Iranian dictatorship desperate for a distraction from how its Syrian entanglement gets messier and messier.  The "Arab Street" moved to Persia.

Photo: Vahid Salemi

A reason to have your domestic league soccer stars be citizens

The Italian Football Players Association is asking its members to buy Italian government bills next week, according to La Gazzetta dello Sport:

l'iniziativa va segnalata perché, in un momento estremamente difficile per l'economia globale, ma soprattutto italiana, l'investimento in titoli di Stato da parte dei cittadini può essere un contributo importante per dimostrare la fiducia che gli italiani hanno nel proprio Paese e per aiutare a migliorare l'aspettativa complessiva che i mercati hanno nei confronti dell'Italia

[basically, that investment in state bonds can show confidence of the citizens and help fight against the market forces that confront Italy]

It appears that they will also waive commission on the purchases.

Of course it could also be seen as an attempt to head off higher taxation of players.  But it's hard to imagine any other players association coming up with such an initiative.

Not top billing

Kuwait News Agency --


National Assembly Speaker Jassem Al-Kharafi received on Monday British Commercial Secretary to the Treasury and member of the House of Lords Baroness Symonds, along with Former Secretary of Defense and current MP Nicholas Soames. The meeting highlighted issues of mutual concern, including political and economic related topics with regard to the two countries. Al-Kharafi also received British Former Prime Minister Tony Blair, discussing issues of mutual concern and bilateral relations.

Note: news item covers first the minister and Nicholas Soames.  Then as an afterthought, that Blair dude.  Then again, Soames has a talent for the big face-time.

Photo from the MP's website

Just in time for the 1916 centenary

Niall Ferguson's view from 2020 in the Wall Street Journal --

And in 2013, in a historical twist only a few die-hard Ulster Unionists had dreamt possible, the Republic of Ireland's voters opted to exchange the austerity of the U.S.E. for the prosperity of the U.K. Postsectarian Irishmen celebrated their citizenship in a Reunited Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland with the slogan: "Better Brits Than Brussels."

Full illustration from story

Look After The Next Generation

Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine:

Mr PM: Can you speak German?
Enda: Not much beyond Good Day but my children learn German

Ireland in new anti-Semitism outrage

Irish Times --

THE PRICE of bagels, croissants, garlic bread and a range of other similar products is likely to increase significantly in the weeks ahead after Revenue decided they were not sufficiently bread-like to be exempt from VAT. The move will see the products fall into the tax net for the first time and may lead to them increasing in price by as much as 13.5 per cent with almost immediate effect.

All on the heels of this.

Occupy Kuwait!

AFP -- The [Kuwaiti] police had used batons to prevent protesters from marching to the residence of Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammad al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, a senior member of the ruling family, after staging a rally outside parliament. Witnesses said at least five demonstrators were injured and treated on the site. Some activists said they will continue to camp outside parliament until the premier is sacked.

The chair, Lebanon style

40 minutes into this video, the talk show bust-up between Fayez Shukr and Mustafa Alloush. Apparently Mr Shukr (the chair lifter) carries the "Baath Party" affiliation with pride. 

They were right because they were right

Paul Krugman:

It [the Euro] was criticized by Thatcherites, who wanted to be free to move Britain in an American direction

Actual Thatcherite*, 1990:

It [the Euro] would also mean that there would have to be enormous transfers of money from one country to another. It would cost us a great deal of money. One reason why some of the poorer countries want it is that they would get those big transfers of money. We are trying to contest that. If we have a single currency or a locked currency, the differences come out substantially in unemployment or vast movements of people from one country to another. Many people who talk about a single currency have never considered its full implications ...  When the Delors proposals for economic and monetary union came out, it was said immediately by my right hon. Friend [ Nigel Lawson ] the then Chancellor of the Exchequer that this was not really about monetary policy at all but about a back door to a federal Europe, taking many democratic powers away from democratically elected bodies and giving them to non-elected bodies ...  I think that some in Germany—only some—are backing the scheme because they know that the dominant voice, the predominant voice, on any central bank would be the German voice. 

*Mrs Thatcher.

UPDATE: In his NYT column, Krugman has modified the claim to --

But it was opposed by British conservatives, who also saw it as a step toward a social-democratic Europe.

That is no more consistent with Maggie's quote.

Pope and Wall Street Journal agree: blame the culture, not the perpetrator

Bizarre line from a Wall Street Journal editorial on the Joe Paterno/Penn State scandal --

It's also something of a relief that in a culture as libertine as ours at least some behavior—sexual exploitation of children—is still considered deviant.

Er, isn't it also criminal, and, like, wrong?

Harvard saves world, again

European Central Bank statement --

Today, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Member of the Executive Board and Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), informed President Mario Draghi that he will resign from his position prior to the end of his term of office on 31 May 2013 to join Harvard University’s Center for International Affairs on 1 January 2012. 

LBS taking his time about quitting was causing problems between France and Germany, because he's essentially sitting in a board seat that France thinks should belong to France.   Unlike the European Prime Ministers forced out of their jobs by European Union policy power plays, LBS wanted to be sure of his next job before he jumped.

UPDATE: If Lucas Papademos is any guide, Harvard seems to be the holding area for future technocrat Prime Ministers.

The Celtic Tiger's sore spot

Whipped into a froth of righteous indignation by a Daily Mail report -- always a shaky stool -- Dan Mitchell of the Cato Institute (via Forbes) launches into a denunciation of Ireland's incoming President, Michael D. Higgins:


He’s also an economic illiterate or a cynical hack who apparently thinks noble poverty is a good idea for the other 99 percent.


Here’s some of what the Daily Mail reported about one of his recent speeches.


"Michael D Higgins launched a savage attack on the Celtic Tiger in his first speech as President elect. In his acceptance speech, the Labour Party candidate…rejected the years of materialism and selfishness that drove the country to ruin. …Michael D declared: ‘We leave behind a narrow individualism that valued the person for what was assumed to be their accumulated wealth but neglected the connection between the person, the social, the community and the nation. …Mr Higgins called on Irish people to return to ‘co-operative and collective values’."

Isn’t this just wonderful? This pampered and cosseted member of the political elite thinks that Ireland somehow was demeaned by being the Celtic Tiger. Does this mean he wants to go back the mid-1980s, before Ireland began to reform? Back when government was consuming more than 50 percent of the nation’s output? Back when the the corporate tax rate was 50 percent? Back when other tax rates were at extortionary levels?


If that’s true, he wants to dramatically reduce the living standards of the Irish people.

This is strange on several levels.  First, Mitchell seems to have conflated Michael D with Eamon de Valera, who in the much more powerful position of Taoiseach (Prime Minister) infamously invoked what he saw as a better Ireland of athletic youths and comely maidens while pursuing a much more statist and isolationist policy than the country has now.  As President, Higgins will have no such influence of policy and that's not his leaning anyway.

Because what's truly revealing here is that Michael D made no specific reference to any policy choices or indeed the supposed virtues of the 1980s.  Instead it was his denunciation of individualism that caught Mitchell's eye.  In other words, it's not so much that a genre of corporate tax policy or light-touch financial regulation drove Ireland into the ditch -- it's that Ireland's economic troubles can be read as an indictment of a broader economic philosophy of everyone-for-themselves/I've got mine boosterism.  That wound will apparently take time to heal.