World Economic Outlook --
In the United Kingdom, the planned June referendum on European Union membership has already created uncertainty for investors; a “Brexit” could do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships ... In the United Kingdom, growth (forecast at 1.9 percent in 2016 and 2.2 percent in 2017) is expected to be driven by domestic private demand supported by lower energy prices and a buoyant property market, which help to offset headwinds from fiscal consolidation and heightened uncertainty ahead of the June referendum on European Union membership ... Over the near term, the main risks to the outlook revolve around ... (7) the United Kingdom’s potential exit from the European Union ...A British exit from the European Union could pose major challenges for both the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe. Negotiations on postexit arrangements would likely be protracted, resulting in an extended period of heightened uncertainty that could weigh heavily on confidence and investment, all the while increasing financial market volatility. A U.K. exit from Europe’s single market would also likely disrupt and reduce mutual trade and financial flows, curtailing key benefits from economic cooperation and integration, such as those resulting from economies of scale and efficient specialization.
And, er, that's it! It's simply Davos elite style chatter written up as a few sentences, with zero analysis, and as an especially nice touch, it's listed as the 7th of 7 downside risks. And yet that's what will dominate the headlines in the UK for a couple of days.
In the United Kingdom, the planned June referendum on European Union membership has already created uncertainty for investors; a “Brexit” could do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships ... In the United Kingdom, growth (forecast at 1.9 percent in 2016 and 2.2 percent in 2017) is expected to be driven by domestic private demand supported by lower energy prices and a buoyant property market, which help to offset headwinds from fiscal consolidation and heightened uncertainty ahead of the June referendum on European Union membership ... Over the near term, the main risks to the outlook revolve around ... (7) the United Kingdom’s potential exit from the European Union ...A British exit from the European Union could pose major challenges for both the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe. Negotiations on postexit arrangements would likely be protracted, resulting in an extended period of heightened uncertainty that could weigh heavily on confidence and investment, all the while increasing financial market volatility. A U.K. exit from Europe’s single market would also likely disrupt and reduce mutual trade and financial flows, curtailing key benefits from economic cooperation and integration, such as those resulting from economies of scale and efficient specialization.
And, er, that's it! It's simply Davos elite style chatter written up as a few sentences, with zero analysis, and as an especially nice touch, it's listed as the 7th of 7 downside risks. And yet that's what will dominate the headlines in the UK for a couple of days.
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