It's news all the way down

Theory: Trump's approval rating in boring news cycles (like this one) gravitates toward ~42%. Usually there's news though and most news (e.g. the GOP trying to pass unpopular legislation) pushes his approval rating down. So he spends more of his time in the mid/high 30s instead.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) January 18, 2018

The above is unintentional illustration of the circularity of poll-driven political analysis in a nutshell. Trump's approval rating is steady as long as there is no "news." When there is news, it goes down. How do we know there's no news? Because his approval rating is steady. How do we know there's news? Because his approval rating goes down.

Note: the current boring news cycle includes: the Stormy Daniels payoff, the latest row over The Wall, the prospective government shutdown, and the sh*thole comments!

This is the same mode of analysis that Nate Silver claims gave him superior insights during the election season.