Friday, June 24, 2016

Referendum night

It would be nice to know what was the leaked private exit poll that the apparent Remain optimism earlier in the night was based on.  It was not the YouGov poll, which was not an exit poll.

UPDATE: As the scale of the tilt to Leave becomes apparent. one future scenario: the UK becomes a Brittanic Confederation which like its Swiss antecedent will be outside the EU while heavily integrated with it, but with its cantons having considerable autonomy in how they exploit that. Housing scarcity and prices will be the way that openness is mitigated.

FINAL THOUGHT: It was a remarkable assumption of political leaders in Europe -- and the USA -- that the collective failures leading to the emergence of an Afghanistan on the eastern Mediterranean would not have political consequences.

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