Friday, November 30, 2007

Why Gordon Brown is in trouble

American pollsters. From the Financial Times --

Mr Brown’s problems can be traced to the moment on the morning of October 5 when Stan Greenberg, Labour’s US polling consultant, flipped open his laptop and gave the prime minister his verdict on the likely outcome of an autumn poll. “He said the PM would win but that his majority could be as high as 40 or as low as 20,” says one of Mr Brown’s aides.

It has never been explained what comparative advantage American pollsters posess in understanding the quite different electoral dynamics of UK politics. Using them to determine the timing of election is especially bizarre, since this is a decision point that is irrelevant in the US, with its fixed terms.

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