Thursday, August 23, 2007

3 state solution

Two interesting things in the new US National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq. First, a signal that the troop surge will continue --

We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent AQI [al Qaeda in Iraq] from establishing a safehaven would erode security gains achieved thus far.

But the more insidious paragraph is the implicit answer to the question of what happens when the preferred counterinsurgency strategy can't be sustained due to troop shortages --

Where population displacements have led to significant sectarian separation, conflict levels have diminished to some extent because warring communities find it more difficult to penetrate communal enclaves.

i.e. "Peace" through de facto partition. Is the plan for the US to stay just long enough to allow that to happen?

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